Workflow
银河期货花生日报-20250813
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-13 14:23

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts is still low, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the short - term peanut price is relatively weak. The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 fluctuated narrowly today. It is expected that the planting area will increase, the planting cost will decrease, and some spring peanuts will start to be listed. Peanut 10 will still fluctuate narrowly [10]. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - Futures Disk: PK604 closed at 8028, up 68 or 0.85%, with a trading volume of 72 (up 453.85%) and an open interest of 266 (up 3.50%); PK510 closed at 8116, up 36 or 0.44%, with a trading volume of 64,408 (up 124.98%) and an open interest of 89,499 (down 6.47%); PK601 closed at 8002, up 32 or 0.40%, with a trading volume of 13,847 (up 350.60%) and an open interest of 20,362 (up 16.05%) [2]. - Spot and Basis: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 9000, 8400, and 8400 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3300, with no change; the price of Rizhao soybean meal was 3030, up 100; the price of peanut oil was 15000, with no change; the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8660, up 170. The basis was 884, 284, and 284 respectively. The difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 2, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6340 [2]. - Import Price: The price of Sudanese peanuts was 8250, with no change [2]. - Spread: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 26, down 36; the spread of PK04 - PK10 was - 88, up 32; the spread of PK10 - PK01 was 114, up 4 [2]. Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut Price: The peanut price in Henan was stable, while that in Northeast China was weak. The price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.2 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.15 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha general peanuts in Henan was 4.25 - 4.35 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton, stable. It is expected that the short - term peanut spot price will be relatively weak [4]. - Peanut Oil and By - products: Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today. The mainstream transaction price was maintained at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - price of oil mills was 8110 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil and peanut oil was stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was quoted at 14800 yuan/ton, stable; the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton, stable. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal rose to 3020 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price difference per unit protein between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and the short - term peanut meal was weak, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3250 yuan/ton [4][9]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - Single - side: Peanut 10 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see, and mainly short after a rebound [11]. - Month - spread: Wait and see [12]. - Options: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [15][21][24].