燃料油日报-20250813

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Asian near - term high - sulfur supply and inventory remain at a high level. Ukrainian bombings of Russian refineries have entered a continuous stage, affecting some refinery capacities and favoring high - sulfur to some extent. Mexican high - sulfur exports are continuously declining, and the supply pressure of high - sulfur in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. On the demand side, the decline in high - sulfur cracking and the increase in China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction are beneficial to the growth of high - sulfur feedstock demand, while the seasonal power generation demand for high - sulfur is gradually decreasing. [7] - Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premiums continue to decline. The increase in spot window sellers and near - term supply growth have hit low - sulfur spot prices. Low - sulfur supply continues to recover, and there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the near - term low - sulfur export logistics changes and the adjustment and issuance rhythm of low - sulfur quotas in the Chinese market. [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Relevant Data - On August 13, 2025, the FU main contract was 2730, down 40 from the previous day; the LU main contract was 3463, down 39 from the previous day. The FU main contract position was 145,000 lots, down 4,000 lots from the previous day; the LU main contract position was 51,000 lots, unchanged from the previous day. The FU warehouse receipt was 92,710 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the LU warehouse receipt was 21,050 tons, unchanged from the previous day. [3] - The FU9 - 1 spread was - 42, down 12 from the previous day; the LU10 - 11 spread was 12, up 5 from the previous day. The LU - FU main contract spread was 733, up 1 from the previous day. The FU09 - foreign market 08 spread was - 15.8, up 0.2 from the previous day; the LU10 - foreign market 09 spread was 7.6, up 4.8 from the previous day. [3] Second Part: Market Research and Judgment - Market Overview: A piece of important news is that on Wednesday, the Russian authorities said that the debris of a destroyed drone caused a small fire at the Slaviansk refinery in the Krasnodar region of Russia, and the fire was quickly extinguished. [6] - Market Judgment: As mentioned in the core views, the supply and demand situation of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is analyzed, and the changes in spreads in the Singapore paper market are also mentioned, such as the high - sulfur Sep/Oct month - spread dropping from 4.8 to 3.3 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct month - spread dropping from 3.5 to 2.0 US dollars/ton. [7] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - There are six graphs including Singapore high - sulfur spot premium, Singapore low - sulfur spot premium, Singapore high - and low - sulfur spread, Singapore LSFO - GO, high - sulfur fuel oil cracking, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters. [9]