银河期货油脂日报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the prices of oils and fats will experience a high - level correction. After the correction, one can consider buying at low prices. For YP09, a short - term rebound may occur, and one can consider shorting after the rebound. For P15, one can consider going long after the correction. For options, after the correction, one can consider selling put options or buying call options [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: For soybean oil, the 2509 closing price was 8576 with a rise of 100. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8756, 8796, and 8676 respectively, and the basis in these areas were 220, 180, and 100 respectively with no change in basis. For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 9424 with a rise of 62. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9424, 9474, and 9574 respectively, and the basis changes were - 20, 0, - 20 respectively. For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 10064 with a rise of 262. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10174, 10114, etc., and the basis changes were 0, 10 etc. [3] - Month - to - Month Spreads: The 9 - 1 month - to - month spread for soybean oil was 16 with a rise of 4; for palm oil, it was (66) with a fall of (32); for rapeseed oil, it was 5 with a rise of 13 [3] - Cross - Variety Spreads: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was 163 with a change of (832), the OI - Y spread was 1477, and the OI - P spread was 645 with a rise of 205. The oil - meal ratio was 2.71 with a fall of (0.03) [3] - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a negative profit of (300) for the September shipment, with a CNF price of 1130. The Rotterdam rapeseed oil for September shipment had a FOB price of 1026 and a negative profit of (622) [3] - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 32nd week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 113.8 million tons (last week: 111.7 million tons, same period last year: 111.1 million tons), the palm oil inventory was 60.0 million tons (last week: 58.2 million tons, same period last year: 58.3 million tons), and the rapeseed oil inventory was 67.2 million tons (last week: 67.8 million tons, same period last year: 42.6 million tons) [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil for September, increasing the export tax to 10%. The reference price was 4053.43 ringgit per ton (962.12 US dollars), compared to 3864.12 US dollars in August with an export tax of 9% [5] - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): Affected by China's anti - dumping case against Canadian rapeseed, the overall price of oils and fats continued to rise. As of August 8, 2025 (the 32nd week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, a 3.02% increase from last week. The origin quotes increased, the import profit inversion narrowed, and there was a reported purchase of one ship. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. Short - term palm oil may rise in a volatile manner, and one can consider buying at low prices. The soybean oil price rose by over 1% in a volatile manner. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 217.75 million tons, and the operating rate was 61.21%. As of August 8, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 113.77 million tons, a 1.82% increase from last week. The basis was stable. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased, and soybean oil may experience a slight inventory reduction. One can consider buying at low prices. The rapeseed oil price rose by over 2% in a volatile manner. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 6.32 million tons, and the operating rate was 16.84%. As of August 8, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 67.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from last week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The spot market had light trading, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. In the short - term, there are many policy disturbances, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [5][6][10] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term, it is expected that the prices of oils and fats will experience a high - level correction, and one can consider buying at low prices after the correction [11] - Arbitrage: YP09 may rebound in the short - term, and one can consider shorting after the rebound. P15 can be considered for going long after the correction [11] - Options: After the correction, one can consider selling put options or buying call options [12] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those of the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, month - to - month spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P, OI - Y [15][18]