银河期货尿素日报-20250813

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Energy Chemical Research Report - Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1726 (+0/+0%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were stable. Henan's factory price was reported at 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shandong's small - particle factory price at 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, Hebei's small - particle factory price at 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi's medium and small - particle factory price at 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Anhui's small - particle factory price at 1690 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia's factory price at 1570 - 1630 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On August 13, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.12 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.23 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 82.59%, a 5.99% increase from 76.60% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Generally average. Mainstream regional urea spot factory quotes stopped falling and stabilized, with weaker transactions. Shandong's mainstream factory quotes rebounded, but market sentiment was average. Industrial compound fertilizer operating rates increased slightly, with sufficient raw material inventories, high finished - product inventories, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. Henan's market sentiment was low, with stable factory quotes, and traders were waiting and watching. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, factory prices were weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily average production dropped to around 19 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. Urea production enterprise inventories increased by 5.38 tons to around 91.73 tons, at a high level overall [5] - Demand: A new round of Indian tenders was announced, with the final price rising by more than $30/ton compared to the previous period. There was a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which boosted the domestic market sentiment to some extent. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, and grass - roots had no intention to stock up. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased slightly, the available days of urea inventory were more than half a month, and the procurement sentiment for raw materials was low [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, domestic demand was still limited. Agricultural demand had ended, and compound fertilizers had not started production on a large scale. The spot market sentiment was generally stable. After some regions lowered factory prices, manufacturers still had difficulty in receiving orders. The Indian tender confirmed 2.1 million tons of supply, in line with market expectations, and the spot market sentiment weakened again [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [8]