Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - International market: With Brazil approaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. Although Brazil's sugar production was initially lower year-on-year, recent reports show a narrowing decline, indicating an increase in bi - weekly sugar production. As the current sugar price has factored in the production increase expectation, the raw sugar price is expected to trade in a range [11]. - Domestic market: The sales and production of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and sugar inventories are low. However, considering the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market and the increased influence of international sugar prices on domestic sugar prices, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the rise in foreign sugar prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, one can consider selling put options at low levels [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures盘面: SR09 closed at 5,722, up 16 (0.28%); SR01 closed at 5,657, up 45 (0.80%); SR05 closed at 5,606, up 49 (0.88%). The trading volume of SR09 was 46,763 with a decrease of 8,680, and the open interest was 78,335 with a decrease of 18,645. The trading volume of SR01 was 238,562 with an increase of 80,854, and the open interest was 310,322 with an increase of 3,735. The trading volume of SR05 was 10,505 with an increase of 4,938, and the open interest was 20,308 with a decrease of 898 [5]. - Spot price: In the spot market, the price in Liuzhou was 6,010 (unchanged), in Kunming was 5,905 (up 40), in Wuhan was 6,230 (up 10), in Nanning was 5,960 (unchanged), in Bayuquan was 6,175 (unchanged), in Rizhao was 6,050 (down 40), and in Xi'an was 6,360 (up 20). The basis in Liuzhou was 288, in Kunming was 183, in Wuhan was 508, in Nanning was 238, in Bayuquan was 453, in Rizhao was 328, and in Xi'an was 638 [5]. - Monthly spread: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 51 (down 4), the SR09 - SR5 spread was 116 (down 29), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was 65 (down 33) [5]. - Import profit: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.95, a premium of (0.17), and a freight of 33.25, the in - quota price was 4,524, the out - of - quota price was 5,763, the spread with Liuzhou was 247, the spread with Rizhao was 287, and the spread with the futures price was - 41. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.95, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,612, the out - of - quota price was 5,879, the spread with Liuzhou was 131, the spread with Rizhao was 171, and the spread with the futures price was - 157 [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Important information: Southern sugar prices in China were mainly up, with general trading volume. Kang师傅's H1 revenue exceeded 40 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 20%. The "carbonated and other" beverage category in its beverage business had a 6.3% year - on - year revenue increase to 10.356 billion yuan. The USDA estimated that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season (starting in October) would reach a record 9.42 million tons, with both beet sugar and cane sugar production estimates revised upwards. Due to the expected production increase, sugar imports in the new season are expected to decrease from 3.2 million tons in the previous season to 2.45 million tons [7][8]. - Logical analysis: Internationally, considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to accumulate. Although Brazil's sugar production was initially lower year - on - year, recent production has increased, and the current price has factored in the production increase expectation, so the raw sugar price is expected to trade in a range. Domestically, the sales and production of domestic sugar are fast, and inventories are low. However, with the large - scale entry of imported sugar, domestic sugar prices are more influenced by international prices, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the foreign sugar trend [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the rise in foreign sugar prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, one can consider selling put options at low levels [12][13][14]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures showing various sugar - related data such as regional monthly inventories, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales rates, spot prices, price spreads, and basis, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [15][19][23][25][28][29]
白糖日报-20250813
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-13 14:44