2.2%的超长信用债值得博弈吗？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Considering that the absolute return of ultra - long credit bonds remains at a low level and the direction of the bond market is unclear, trading opportunities for this bond type still need to be awaited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1存量市场特征 - Ultra - long credit bond yields fluctuate within a narrow range. From August 4th to August 8th, 2025, information affecting bond pricing was still complex, and the bond market sentiment was cautious. Compared with the previous week, the yields of existing ultra - long credit bonds declined slightly, with the yield center maintaining between 2.1% and 2.3% [2][13]. 3.2一级发行情况 - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds rebounded. The total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 19.7 billion yuan. Although the supply increased to some extent, its proportion in the total issuance scale of credit bonds for the week continued to decline. The average issuance interest rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds continued to rise and has now reached over 2.3%. Due to the increase in the coupon rate of ultra - long industrial bonds and the low - level hovering of the initial - month capital interest rate, investors' participation in subscribing for ultra - long credit bonds strengthened [3]. 3.3二级成交表现 - The pricing of the ultra - long credit bond index was basically the same as last week. Against the backdrop of increased difficulty in bond market forecasting, the performance of ultra - long credit bonds was inferior to mainstream bond assets. This week, the index trends of treasury bonds over 10 years, medium - term notes from 3 - 5 years, and secondary bonds of national - owned and joint - stock banks from 3 - 5 years were all better than that of the ultra - long credit bond index [4]. - The number of ultra - long credit bond transactions decreased significantly. Since July, ultra - long credit bonds have lacked floating profits. In an unstable bond market, the drawback of difficult - to - control drawdowns led to a significant weakening of the trading demand for this bond type. The total number of transactions of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above decreased from 515 last week to 389 this week. In terms of transaction returns, the average transaction yield of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds marginally recovered, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds compressed to 22bp, but the yields of general credit bond varieties over 10 years were still rising [4]. - Correspondingly, the low - valuation transaction margin of ultra - long credit bonds narrowed significantly this week, and the trading form of some long - term bond varieties changed to high - valuation. In terms of buying sentiment, the proportion of TKN transactions of 7 - 10 - year credit bonds with good liquidity dropped below 70% [4]. - Regarding the investor structure, insurance companies' willingness to hold ultra - long credit bonds was strong. This week, insurance companies' net purchase of credit bonds over 7 years reached 4.55 billion yuan. Funds, which had significantly reduced their holdings of ultra - long credit bonds in the previous two weeks, increased their holdings of 7 - 20 - year varieties to some extent this week. It is possible that as the assessment time approaches, some fund investors are extending the duration to increase returns [4].