Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-13 14:50Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited [5] Core Views - The company has a robust profit and cash flow base from its Hong Kong gas business, while its growth-oriented businesses provide new momentum for expansion [2][18] - The flexible pricing adjustment mechanism is a key reason for the high profit margins in the Hong Kong gas business [2][34] - The company is expanding its gas business in mainland China, with significant growth in sales volume and recovery of profit margins [4][57] Summary by Sections Hong Kong Gas Business - The gas tariff consists of an effective charging table and fuel adjustment fee, with a tiered pricing model that encourages higher consumption [2][28] - Hong Kong's natural gas consumption has remained stable, with a projected consumption of 27,159 TJ (approximately 730 million cubic meters) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3][35] - The EBIT for the Hong Kong utility business has been stable, with a projected increase to nearly HKD 50 billion in 2024, resulting in an EBIT margin of 46.3% [3][48] Mainland Gas Business - The company has expanded its mainland gas business since 1994, with sales volume increasing from 19.5 billion cubic meters in 2017 to 36.36 billion cubic meters in 2024, representing a CAGR of 9.3% [4][51] - The unit sales price difference in the mainland gas business has improved to HKD 0.52 per cubic meter by the end of 2024 [4][60] Growth-Oriented Businesses - The renewable energy business, primarily through the subsidiary Honghua Smart Energy, has seen rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 154% in distributed photovoltaic installations from 2021 to 2024 [74] - The company is actively developing green methanol and hydrogen fuel supply, with significant production targets set for 2028 [81][84] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 578.1 billion, HKD 605.6 billion, and HKD 632.8 billion from 2025 to 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.2%, 4.7%, and 4.5% [5][92] - The net profit forecast for the same period is HKD 61.6 billion, HKD 65.9 billion, and HKD 69.4 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.9%, 6.9%, and 5.4% [5][92]