Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 13, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. Although the current profit situation of steel mills is good and molten iron production remains high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations for supply contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large fluctuations in the coking coal futures market and intense capital games. The production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, which limits the upside space. Whether ferroalloys can continue to fall depends on the support levels of 5650 for ferrosilicon and 5900 for ferromanganese [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - Ferromanganese: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - Inventory Management: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about the decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising ferroalloy prices, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The short - term price of ferroalloys is affected by coking coal prices, while the long - term demand outlook is constrained by the real estate market and the uncertainty of policy - driven demand from the home appliance and automotive industries. The supply of manganese ore is sufficient, and the production of ferroalloys is increasing, which restricts price increases [4]. 3.4利多解读 - Ferrosilicon: The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The warehouse receipt inventory of ferrosilicon is 9.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory is 17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [6]. - Ferromanganese: The government's control policies for high - energy - consuming industries are still strict, and the ferromanganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products is 12.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory is 16.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt is 38.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory is 54.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region is - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and the profit in the southern region is - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [7]. 3.5利空解读 - Ferrosilicon: The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output is 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory is 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area is - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and the profit in the Ningxia production area is 48 yuan/ton (-234) [7]. - Ferromanganese: In the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [7]. 3.6 Daily Data - Ferrosilicon: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [7]. - Ferromanganese: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, manganese ore prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [8][9]. 3.7 Seasonal Charts - Seasonal charts of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are provided, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and patterns [10][11][19][20]
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250814
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-13 23:30