工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250814

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has fallen and adjusted due to the cooling sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the market, but the bullish sentiment has resurfaced recently, and it is expected that the silicon price may maintain high-level consolidation. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by the supply-side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, and the price has continuously broken through new highs since listing. Recently, although the sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates, and the price maintains high-level consolidation with large market fluctuations [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 2.71% to 8,600 yuan/ton [1] - Supply Side: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1] - Demand Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some incremental demand. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plant enterprises have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and the price may be under pressure again. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] - Investment Strategy: It is expected that the silicon price may maintain high-level consolidation. Continuously pay attention to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises in the future [1] Polysilicon - Price Information: The price of N-type dense material remained flat at 46 yuan/kg, the price of N-type re-feeding material remained flat at 47 yuan/kg, the price of N-type mixed material remained flat at 45 yuan/kg, and the price of N-type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 0.98% to 51,290 yuan/ton [1] - Supply Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month-on-month [1] - Demand Side: The photovoltaic market as a whole is weak, and the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased. Recently, due to the expected increase in the polysilicon price, the downstream silicon wafer price has followed the increase, and the enterprise said it will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the demand was greatly overdrawn by the rush to install in the first half of the year, the terminal market is still weak, and the component price has adjusted back [1] - Investment Strategy: The price maintains high-level consolidation, the market fluctuates greatly, and operations need to be cautious. Continuously pay attention to the evolution of macro sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts in the future [1] Other Information - India's Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) announced the approved models and manufacturer list (ALMM) of solar cells, covering six manufacturers with a total annual production capacity of 13GW [1] - The winning candidate list for the third tender of the first batch of photovoltaic module procurement framework of a technology company from 2025 - 2026 was announced, with 5 enterprises shortlisted, and the winning bid price is 0.71 - 0.76 yuan/W [1]