Workflow
7月金融数据点评:社融增速继续回升,关注近期政策对信贷的提振效果
Orient Securities·2025-08-14 00:42

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing continues to rebound, with government bonds playing a core driving role [9][10] - The recent policy measures are expected to have a positive impact on credit demand, particularly for household loans [13][14] - Non-bank deposits have significantly increased, indicating improved M1 growth driven by the conversion of household deposits to corporate deposits [18] Summary by Sections Social Financing Growth - In July 2025, social financing grew by 9.0% year-on-year, with a monthly increment of 1.16 trillion yuan, which was below market expectations by 250 billion yuan [9][10] - The increase in government bonds contributed 555.9 billion yuan to social financing, continuing its core role in driving growth [10] - Corporate direct financing increased by 102.9 billion yuan, with bond financing up by 75.5 billion yuan, benefiting from a recovery in the A-share market [10] Loan Growth - Total RMB loans grew by 6.9% year-on-year in July 2025, with a net decrease of 50 billion yuan for the month [13] - Household loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 2.793 billion yuan, while corporate loans decreased by 3.9 billion yuan [13][14] - The report expresses optimism regarding the effectiveness of recent policy measures to support loan growth, particularly for household loans [13] Non-Bank Deposits - M1 grew by 5.6% year-on-year in July, with M2 growing by 8.8%, indicating a narrowing gap between M2 and M1 growth rates [18] - The increase in non-bank deposits by 1.39 trillion yuan aligns with the observed trends in household and corporate deposit conversions [18] - The report notes that the increase in corporate deposits by 320.9 billion yuan is primarily due to significant fiscal spending [18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment themes: high-dividend stocks due to the reduction in insurance preset rates and fundamentally strong mid-sized banks [24][25] - Recommended banks for high-dividend strategies include China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [25] - For mid-sized banks, the report recommends focusing on Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, Nanjing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [25]