中国7月M1增速继续超预期上升

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The financial market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - strategy area, there are different expectations for Fed's interest - rate cuts, which affect the prices of gold, dollar, and stocks. In the commodity market, different commodities face different supply - demand situations and price trends, with some facing risks of price correction and others showing potential for price increase [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025 if the labor market remains robust. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, with the market risk preference remaining high. The divergence among Fed officials lies in inflation pressure. The market will focus on economic data, and gold is expected to continue its volatile trend in the short term [10] - Investment advice: Gold prices have not escaped the volatile trend in the short term [11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high since December 2021 on August 13, and the margin trading balance also hit a new high. The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy funds for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been issued [12][13] - Investment advice: Allocate stocks evenly among different stock indexes [14] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US State Department imposed visa restrictions on government officials from Brazil and other countries. US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for at least a 150 - basis - point rate cut, and Trump may appoint a new Fed chairman earlier, which increased market risk preference and weakened the US dollar [15][16][17] - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in the short term [18] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Bostic prefers to wait for a clearer understanding of the situation before making adjustments, while Bessent believes the Fed may start rate cuts earlier, and the market's rate - cut expectation has further increased. The Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Index led the gains, but there are still risks of correction [19] - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain strong under the rate - cut expectation, but inflation risks may increase market volatility [20] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's M1 growth rate in July was 5.6%, exceeding market expectations. The financial data divergence is not contradictory. The private sector's willingness to increase loans is weak, but fiscal policies have improved corporate cash flow. It is expected that financial data will not improve significantly in the short term, and M1 growth will peak in September. The bond market is difficult to have a trend - like market [21][23] - Investment advice: Allocation investors can gradually buy when the 10Y and 30Y interest rates are close to 1.75% and 2.0% respectively, and trading investors should be cautious when betting on rebounds [24] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA's weekly export sales report to show a net increase of 60 - 160 million tons of US soybean exports. The CBOT soybean price has been rising, and domestic soybean meal prices have also strengthened. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning [25] - Investment advice: Maintain the view that soybean meal prices will fluctuate upward, and focus on the development of Sino - US relations [25] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia will raise the export tariff of crude palm oil to 10% in September 2025. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. The oil market continued to fluctuate strongly [26][27] - Investment advice: Buy on dips for the three major oils, as prices are expected to continue to strengthen as inventory depletion accelerates [28] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. Supply was affected by safety inspections, and demand was affected by the production restrictions of some coke enterprises. The coke price has been raised for the sixth round [29] - Investment advice: The short - term upward momentum of the futures market is weak. Pay attention to the impact of policies and demand changes [30] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In July, the export of passenger cars was 499,000, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The decline of coking coal futures prices led to a weakening of steel prices. The actual supply reduction may be limited, and there is a risk of price correction [31][33] - Investment advice: The market will fluctuate in the short term, and be vigilant against market fluctuations and correction risks [34] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton export in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach a record 2.82 million tons. The USDA August report lowered the estimated production and ending inventory of US and global cotton. Some large cotton trading enterprises in China have started pre - purchasing new cotton [35][36] - Investment advice: The USDA report has a short - term positive impact on the outer market, but the upward drive may be limited. The domestic cotton market is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high [39] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of the corn starch industry has increased slightly, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the开机 rate will remain weakly volatile year - on - year, which is negative for future profits [40] - Investment advice: There is no driving force for the price difference between rice flour and corn starch to strengthen. The price difference between North China and Northeast China may be unfavorable to the 09 contract in September [41] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Deep - processing enterprises continued to lower prices to test the market. The price of corn was weak, while the price in the northern port was stable. The CBOT corn price fell sharply due to the increase in planted area and yield [42] - Investment advice: The medium - and long - term downward trend of corn prices is expected to continue [42] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tiankang Bio has completed about 50% of its annual target. The pig - breeding industry is in the stage of policy implementation, and the short - term performance of near - month and far - month contracts is different [43] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage [44] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - It is still difficult to purchase domestic ore in some areas. Overseas prices are falling, and ore supply is temporarily sufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46] - Investment advice: Wait and see [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The import of lead concentrates will be restricted by new regulations on harmful elements, but the actual impact on import volume is limited. The price of primary lead is more competitive, and the demand is in the stage of waiting for verification of the peak season [49] - Investment advice: Hold long positions established at low prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc futures price fluctuated. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the structural risk was still high. The domestic supply was high, and the demand was stable. The short - term trading of zinc is difficult [54] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, manage positions well; for arbitrage, pay attention to the mid - term positive arbitrage opportunity; for domestic - foreign trading, wait and see [54] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - An accident occurred at Albemarle's lithium factory in Chile, and it is under investigation. The suspension of production at Ningde's mine will lead to a reduction in lithium carbonate production and a decrease in inventory [55] - Investment advice: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [55] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Carsurin will build a large - scale photovoltaic power station to support the nickel industry in Indonesia. The LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The price of nickel ore is expected to be seasonally weak in September - October [56][57] - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity; in the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices [58] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in September has increased, which will support the copper price. The domestic copper inventory is low, but the LME and COMEX inventory accumulation is expected to limit the short - term increase of copper price [63] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy between domestic and foreign markets [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some PDH plants plan to stop for maintenance. The US C3 inventory increased, and the congestion of the Panama Canal may ease in late August, which will weaken the cost support [64][65] - Investment advice: The relative valuation of FEI will weaken marginally in late August [66] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The IEA slightly lowered the global oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026. The US EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories increased, and gasoline inventories decreased. Oil prices fluctuated weakly [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Oil prices will remain volatile in the short term [70] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price fell slightly. The cost pressure increased due to the decline of raw material prices. The domestic PX load may increase marginally in August, and the price will fluctuate with crude oil and macro - sentiment [71] - Investment advice: The price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term [72] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price fell, and the basis was stable. The demand was weak, and the supply of some plants decreased due to low processing fees. The price will fluctuate with crude oil and macro - sentiment [73][74] - Investment advice: The price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was moderate. The market is expected to remain stable in the short term [75][76] - Investment advice: The caustic soda spot price has bottomed out, and the futures price will fluctuate [76] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed a stronger trend. The prices of some imported pulp increased, while the prices of some other types remained stable. The price increase is limited due to poor supply - demand [77] - Investment advice: The pulp futures price will rise with the overall commodity sentiment, but the upward space is limited [78] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted. The fundamentals are weak, but the macro - positive factors and rising coal prices support the price. The market will fluctuate [79] - Investment advice: The PVC market will fluctuate [79] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips changed little, and the price decreased due to the decline of polyester raw materials. The major bottle - chip factories will continue the production - cut state, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [80][81] - Investment advice: The price of bottle chips will follow the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [81]