Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of copper prices may be oscillating with an upward bias due to factors such as tight raw material supply and positive sentiment, while the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upper - bound pressure [1]. - Aluminum prices may be in a range - bound state. The support comes from low domestic aluminum ingot inventories and strong external demand, while the pressure is from weak downstream consumption and volatile trade situations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be in a short - term upward - biased oscillation. The supply is slightly narrowing, and there may be structural disturbances in the LME market, along with potential transportation restrictions due to environmental protection [4]. - Zinc prices still face significant downward risks as the mid - term industry's oversupply situation remains unchanged, despite some market structural changes [5]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in a short - term due to the current situation of low supply and weak demand on both the domestic and international fronts [6]. - Nickel prices may have a slight rebound in the short - term due to positive macro - atmosphere, but there is still pressure for price correction as downstream demand improvement is limited [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply improvement is the focus of the market, and the price fluctuations are affected by news and capital games, with high uncertainty [9]. - For alumina, the over - capacity pattern remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices after the short - term bullish sentiment fades [12]. - Stainless steel is likely to continue its range - bound consolidation in the short - term as the price increase is hindered and the demand has not significantly recovered [14]. - The price increase space of cast aluminum alloy is relatively limited due to the off - season and large futures - spot price difference, although there is cost support [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.64% to $9777/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79110 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper's main contract is 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9650 - 9850 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 875 to 155875 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 2.3 million tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was within 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 1180 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed down 0.53% to $2608/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20655 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 20550 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2580 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum's weighted contract's open interest increased by 1.7 to 600000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 55000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.4 to 428500 tons [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.08% to 16933 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 12 to $2016.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 64300 tons. The port inventory of lead ore increased in August, and the supply side slightly narrowed [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.07% to 22621 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 12 to $2841/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 119200 tons. Zinc ore supply is in a loose state, and the domestic zinc ingot remains in an oversupply situation [5]. Tin - Price: On August 13, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 269820 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The expected operating range is 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton for domestic tin prices and 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton for LME tin prices [6]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 44 to 7430 tons, and LME inventory increased by 15 to 1780 tons [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. High - nickel ferronickel's domestic ex - factory price rose to 920 - 930 yuan/nickel. The expected operating ranges are 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel's main contract and 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton for LME nickel 3M [7]. - Market: Nickel mines' prices were stable, and the ferronickel market sentiment improved, but the oversupply pressure remained [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index closed at 79832 yuan, up 2.57%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 82400 - 88880 yuan/ton [9][10]. - Market: The supply improvement is the focus, and price fluctuations are affected by news and capital games [9]. Alumina - Price: On August 13, 2025, the alumina index closed down 2.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [12]. - Market: The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price dropped to $367/ton, and the import window was closed. It is recommended to short at high prices after the short - term bullish sentiment fades [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13130 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The market is likely to continue range - bound consolidation [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased to 1.1063 million tons, with 300 - series inventory decreasing by 2.82% [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: AD2511 contract rose 0.3% to 20200 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price rose to 20000 yuan/ton [17]. - Inventory: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.16 million tons [17].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250814
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-14 01:07