宝城期货国债期货早报-20250814

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, with an overall view of oscillation due to the monetary policy leaning towards structural easing [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall reference view is to oscillate. In the short term, bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy leans towards structural easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, intraday view: oscillate with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillate; reference view: oscillate. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated and closed slightly higher the previous day. As market interest rates are close to policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited, providing strong support at the bottom of bond futures. In the long - term, the monetary policy is supportive, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, so the long - term upward logic of bonds is solid. In the short term, the macro - economy showed strong resilience in the first half of the year, and external risk factors have temporarily eased, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. The central bank and the Ministry of Finance jointly introduced two loan interest subsidy policies, which means the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has greatly decreased [5].