金信期货日刊-20250814

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Report" - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The subsequent trend of silver futures is expected to be volatile and bullish [3]. - The "Personal Consumption Loan Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" brings policy benefits to promote consumption in the financial sector, which continues to be positive for A-shares [7]. - The weaker-than-expected July non-farm payroll data, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September, which is positive for gold [11]. - The iron ore market has strong fundamental support, and after a small adjustment, it can still consider a low-buying strategy [15]. - The glass market has a slight improvement in supply and demand, and with the improvement of the macro - environment, a low - buying strategy can be maintained [19]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silver - Fundamentals: The global silver market has been in short supply for many years, and this pattern is expected to continue in 2025. Strong industrial demand from photovoltaics and new energy provides strong support for silver prices [4]. - Macro - level: The expectation of loose global monetary policy is increasing, the US dollar index may weaken in the medium term, inflation expectations are rising, and the de - dollarization trend may lead central banks to include silver in reserve assets, all of which are positive for silver [4]. - Technical analysis: After the London silver price breaks through the key position, there is no obvious resistance above. Institutions are generally bullish on silver, expecting the international silver price to fluctuate mainly between $45 - 49 per ounce in the second half of the year, and the Shanghai silver futures may reach 10,000 - 11,000 per kilogram [4]. A - shares (Stock Index Futures) - News: The "Personal Consumption Loan Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" is positive for A - shares. The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising after a morning pull - back, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - yang line, achieving 8 consecutive positive days [7][8]. - Operation: Continue to maintain a low - buying strategy [7]. Gold - News: The weaker - than - expected July non - farm payroll data and the downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [11]. Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profits have improved, and iron water production remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. The anti - involution in the black industry chain and the continuous news of black production restrictions have boosted market sentiment [15][16]. - Technical analysis: After a small adjustment today, a low - buying strategy can be considered after stabilization [15]. Glass - Fundamentals: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation [19][20]. - Technical analysis: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [19]. Alumina - Fundamentals: Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and the futures have long maintained high volatility [24]. - News: EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license. - Operation: Maintain a low - buying strategy [24].