Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply - side pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season of overseas mines. There is still demand support, but the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situation [10]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended that both long and short positions participate cautiously [16]. - For glass and soda ash, in the short term, both are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - emotions, and soda ash prices are affected by the supply - side and market emotions, but there are still contradictions in the supply - demand fundamentals [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Prices and Positions: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3222 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.10%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3451 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-0.94%) [2]. - Fundamentals: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks with an enlarged increase. Hot - rolled coil showed a decline in both supply and demand, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventory of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is increasing marginally, while the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - Prices and Positions: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 795.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.75% (-6.00), and the position increased by 8620 hands to 45.24 million hands [5]. - Supply and Demand: The latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. The daily average hot - metal output decreased slightly due to blast furnace maintenance. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased marginally [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Prices and Positions: On August 13, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.59% at 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.45% at 5794 yuan/ton [8]. - Market Analysis: The short - term market is affected by emotions. The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. Ferrosilicon has not changed significantly, and there is also a situation of marginal weakening of demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Prices and Positions: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.71% (-240). The weighted contract position increased by 6636 hands to 549,174 hands [13]. - Supply and Demand: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. In August, the production capacity is expected to increase, and the demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur [14]. - Polysilicon - Prices and Positions: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 51,290 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.98% (-510). The weighted contract position decreased by 6830 hands to 314,523 hands [15]. - Supply and Demand: In August, polysilicon production is expected to increase, and downstream silicon wafer production is also increasing, but the inventory is still at a high level. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Prices and Inventory: The spot price in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.95% [18]. - Market Outlook: The price adjustment space is relatively limited in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, it follows macro - emotions [18]. - Soda Ash - Prices and Inventory: The spot price was 1260 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day. As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8762 million tons, an increase of 0.60% [19]. - Market Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [19].
黑色建材日报-20250814
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-14 01:12