宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250814

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be on an upward - trending or at least stable and slightly increasing path, while the medium - term view for all three is "oscillating" [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term view is "oscillating", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - Core Logic: The USDA report shows that US soybean stocks have declined more than expected, giving a boost to US soybean futures prices. Sino - US trade policy changes and Sino - Canadian trade tensions are affecting market sentiment. The domestic industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and the trading logic revolves around supply expectations and costs. With the initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, Sino - US trade relations continue to impact market sentiment, making short - term soybean meal futures prices more likely to rise than fall [5]. - Influencing Factors: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - Price Trend: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - Core Logic: Currently, the low inventory of US soybean oil and the optimistic expectation of biodiesel demand support US soybean oil futures prices. The increase in domestic soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the pressure of oversupply, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has eased. At the same time, the expected increase in raw soybean costs has pushed up soybean oil futures prices, which have reached new stage highs, and market sentiment has clearly improved [7]. - Influencing Factors: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][8]. - Core Logic: Recently, the rotation of the oil and fat sector has continued. Palm oil has been continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. As the previously weak rapeseed oil has seen a compensatory increase, the upward rotation pattern of the oil and fat sector has been further strengthened, and short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to be oscillating strongly [8]. - Influencing Factors: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].