原油：正套酌情持有，关注俄美领导人会晤

Report Overview - The report is about the international crude oil market on August 14, 2025, providing price information, industry news, and data updates [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Hold long positions in the positive spread of crude oil as appropriate and pay attention to the meeting between Russian and US leaders [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI September crude oil futures closed down $0.52/barrel, a 0.82% decline, at $62.65/barrel [1]. - Brent October crude oil futures closed down $0.49/barrel, a 0.74% decline, at $65.63/barrel [1]. - SC2510 crude oil futures closed down 4.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.92% decline, at 485.70 yuan/barrel [1]. Industry News - US President Trump told Zelensky and allies that he would not discuss territorial division with Putin this week [1]. - Trump appointed David Rosner as the chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [1]. - Trump will propose to jointly develop rare - earth mineral resources in Alaska with Putin during the Russia - US summit and lift the export ban on Russian aircraft parts [1]. - Trump said Russia would face consequences if it did not stop the war [1]. - The 4 - week average supply of petroleum products reached the highest level since August 2023 [1]. - France, the UK, and Germany's foreign ministers said they would activate the sanctions "restoration mechanism" against Iran if a satisfactory solution was not found by the end of August [1]. US Oil Data (Week Ending August 8) - Crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels/day to 3.577 million barrels/day [1]. - Domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels/day [1]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 0.72% increase [1]. - The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 21.159 million barrels/day, a 2.89% increase year - on - year [1]. - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [1]. - Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.92 million barrels/day, an increase of 958,000 barrels/day from the previous week [1]. - EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 45,000 barrels, compared with 453,000 barrels in the previous value [1]. Russia's Production Cut Plan - Russia announced a production cut of 85,000 barrels/day per month from July to November and an additional 9,000 barrels/day in December [1]. IEA Monthly Report Forecasts - Global oil supply is expected to have a record surplus next year [1]. - Global crude oil refinery runs will approach the highest level in history in August, reaching 85.6 million barrels/day [1]. - The average total demand in 2025 is predicted to be 103.7 million barrels/day [1]. - The 2025 global oil supply growth forecast was raised from 2.1 million barrels/day to 2.5 million barrels/day, and the 2026 forecast was raised from 1.3 million barrels/day to 1.9 million barrels/day [1]. - The 2025 global oil demand growth forecast was lowered from 704,000 barrels/day to 685,000 barrels/day, and the 2026 forecast was lowered from 722,000 barrels/day to 699,000 barrels/day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2].