五矿期货农产品早报-20250814

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by multiple factors, with the US soybean market being undervalued and supply exceeding demand, while the domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and the spot may start destocking in September [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has seen an increase in exports in Malaysia, and the market is supported by factors such as the potential of the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations [7][9]. - The sugar market is expected to see a decline in the price of Zhengzhou sugar in the future, considering factors such as increased import supply and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [11][12]. - The cotton market has seen a short - term rebound in prices due to the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, but the downstream consumption is average, and the price may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14][15]. - The egg market has a large supply scale, and the egg price is weaker than expected in the peak season. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [16][17]. - The pig market has a situation where the spot price is weak while the futures price is strong. The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Market Conditions: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 108,000 tons month - on - month. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and the downstream inventory days increased by 0.32 days to 8.37 days. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation [2][5]. - Trading Strategy: Given the mixed long and short factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, as well as the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Oil - Important Information: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month, and Indonesia distributed about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel in the first half of 2025. Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.02% [7]. - Trading Strategy: The fundamentals support the central price of oils, and the palm oil market may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has an upward expectation in the fourth quarter. However, due to multiple restrictive factors, the market should be viewed as oscillatory [9]. Sugar - Key Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday, and the spot prices of various sugar - making groups increased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of August had an average daily export volume 2% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [11]. - Trading Strategy: With the continuous increase in import supply in the second half of the year, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is more likely to decline in the future, assuming no significant rebound in the outer - market price [12]. Cotton - Key Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday. The USDA report showed a decrease in global cotton production and consumption estimates, and a decrease in the ending inventory [14]. - Trading Strategy: Driven by the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - Spot Information: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas making small adjustments. The supply remained stable, and the market digestion was average [16]. - Trading Strategy: The supply scale is large, and the egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [17]. Pig - Spot Information: The domestic pig price mainly increased slightly, and the downstream increment was not obvious, so the continuous price increase is difficult [19]. - Trading Strategy: The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [20].