铅锌日评：区间整理-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment fluctuates. Fundamentally, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supplies are increasing, demand is in the off - season, inventories are accumulating, and the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories overseas provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,988 dollars/ton, down 1.39% [1]. - Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.52, up 1.50% [1]. Supply - related Information - The "Limit Specification for Harmful Elements in Heavy Non - ferrous Metal Concentrate Products" will be implemented on September 1, 2025, mainly restricting the entry of imported lead concentrates with excessive harmful elements, but currently having no obvious impact on supply [1]. - Some lead smelting enterprises in Henan may face vehicle transportation restrictions during August 26 - September 3 due to environmental protection emergency control [1]. - South American mining company Nexa Resources' Cerro Pasco complex partially shut down temporarily, but it has not had a substantial impact on production [1]. Market Fundamentals - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has not affected smelter operations significantly. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase [1]. - For recycled lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, raw materials are in short supply, some smelters cut or stop production, and the overall production is at a relatively low level [1]. Demand - side Situation - Some battery enterprises' operations declined last week due to high temperatures and poor demand, and downstream purchasing was cautious after the lead price rebounded [1]. Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,490 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 110 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 1.28% [1]. - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.04, up 1.16% [1]. Supply - related Information - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and production is expected to increase [1]. Market Fundamentals - The cost - side support for zinc is weakening, smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, and the output is increasing significantly [1]. Demand - side Situation - Downstream zinc buyers purchased more when the price was low last week, and the restocking sentiment weakened after the price rebounded [1].