Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The central government's policies show care for the capital market, with a long - term bullish outlook for the stock market, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. - In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends, with some expected to be volatile and strong, and some facing downward risks [9][12]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may weaken if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of related products are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [25]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment, and different trading strategies are recommended [44][45]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [56][57]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - News: As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. 188 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for equipment renewal investment subsidies has been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [2]. - Basis ratio of stock index futures: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long run, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. As of the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold rose 0.11%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.12%. COMEX gold fell 0.03%, and COMEX silver fell 0.10%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.24%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [6]. - Outlook: The US Treasury Secretary called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, and the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: The US dollar index weakened, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic spot premiums were firm. - Price trend: Copper prices may be volatile and strong in the short term, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of 9650 - 9850 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market: The domestic commodity atmosphere cooled, and aluminum prices fluctuated and corrected. LME inventory increased slightly, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. - Price trend: Aluminum prices may be volatile in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20550 - 20800 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2580 - 2640 US dollars/ton [11]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices fell slightly. Zinc ore was in a loose supply situation, and domestic zinc ingots were in excess. - Price trend: Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased, and the start - up rate of primary lead recovered. Downstream consumption pressure was high. - Price trend: Lead prices may be volatile and strong in the short term [15]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rose slightly, but the surplus pressure remained. - Price trend: Nickel prices may rebound slightly in the short term but face correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - Market: Tin prices fluctuated. Supply was expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply pressure remained. Demand was weak domestically but strong overseas due to AI computing power. - Price trend: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [17]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased. The market was affected by supply news and capital games. - Price trend: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders can seize entry points. The reference operating range of the 2511 contract is 82400 - 88880 yuan/ton [18][19]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices fell. Ore supply disturbances continued, but the over - capacity pattern remained. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies after the short - term bullish sentiment fades. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. Social inventory decreased, and market trading was inactive. - Price trend: The stainless steel market may continue to consolidate in the short term [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The downstream was in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. - Price trend: The upward space of prices is relatively limited [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and hot - rolled coil showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with both inventories rising. - Price trend: If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may fall [25]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices fell slightly. Overseas shipments and arrivals decreased, and iron water production decreased slightly. - Price trend: Iron ore prices are mainly affected by sentiment and fundamentals, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices fell significantly. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [28]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center may rise in the long term [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. The market is affected by "anti - involution" sentiment and fundamentals. - Strategy: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand can provide some support. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [35]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory is likely to accumulate. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated. The long and short sides have different views. - Strategy: It is recommended to have a neutral view and operate in and out quickly, and consider short - term spread trading [43]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil prices fell. US commercial crude oil inventory increased, and SPR inventory increased slightly. - Outlook: Oil prices are currently underestimated, and it is a good opportunity for left - side layout [44]. Methanol - Market: Methanol prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and port inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Market: Urea prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and demand was weak. - Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [46]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices fell. The cost side provides support, and the port inventory decreased significantly. - Price trend: The BZN spread may repair, and prices may rise with the cost side after inventory reduction [47]. PVC - Market: PVC prices fell. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply decreased slightly, demand increased slightly, and port inventory increased. - Price trend: The short - term valuation may decline [50]. PTA - Market: PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, and demand is expected to improve after the off - season. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long with PX on dips after the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - Market: PX prices fell. PX load remained high, and downstream PTA maintenance increased. - Price trend: PX is expected to continue to destock, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long with crude oil on dips after the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices fell. Supply pressure is expected to increase in August, and demand is in the off - season. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices rose. The cost side may dominate the market, and supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. - Price trend: PP prices may rise slightly with crude oil in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices rose slightly. Supply is not short, and there is room for future price increases. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts and pay attention to spread trading opportunities for far - month contracts [56]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was large, and the price performance in the peak season was weaker than expected. - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: US soybeans rose slightly, and rapeseed meal fell from the high. Domestic soybean meal spot basis decreased. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to changes in Sino - US trade relations [60]. Oils and Fats - Market: Palm oil prices rose slightly, and rapeseed oil prices fluctuated. Malaysian palm oil exports increased in early August. - Strategy: Oils and fats prices are expected to oscillate, and the upward space is limited [62]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices rebounded. Brazilian sugar exports increased in early August. - Price trend: International and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices may continue to fall [63]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices rebounded. The USDA report was positive, and Sino - US tariffs were suspended. - Price trend: Cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [64].
五矿期货文字早评-20250814
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-14 01:47