7月金融数据解读：低基数+权益上涨，存款继续修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, new RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 310 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.9%. New social financing scale reached 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 389.2 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing rose from 8.9% to 9%. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 increased from 8.3% to 8.8%, and the growth rate of the new - caliber M1 increased from 4.6% to 5.6%. Overall, July's credit performance was lower than market expectations, with bills being the main support. Among social financing sub - items, government bonds increased by 555.9 billion yuan year - on - year, supporting the social financing growth rate to remain high. In terms of deposits, under the low - base effect, the M1 growth rate continued to rise, and M2 was mainly driven by non - bank deposits [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Credit: Both the household and corporate sectors performed mediocrely - Household Sector: In July, both short - term and medium - to - long - term loans were relatively weak, with a combined decrease of 489.3 billion yuan. Short - term loans decreased by 382.7 billion yuan, 167.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year, possibly due to the overdraft effect of the June shopping festival. Medium - to - long - term credit decreased by 110 billion yuan, 120 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was - 18.6%, and the decline was larger than last month. The trading of second - hand houses was relatively weak, and medium - to - long - term household loans showed negative growth again since April [2][10]. - Corporate Sector: In July, corporate medium - to - long - term loans decreased by 260 billion yuan, 390 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The growth rate of the loan balance dropped slightly to 6.9%. Existing policy tools had limited driving effects on corporate loans, and subsequent policy - based financial tools might support corporate medium - to - long - term loans. Corporate short - term loans decreased by 550 billion yuan, basically the same as last year. Bill financing increased by 871.1 billion yuan, 312.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. With the weak loan issuance, the demand for bills to "fill the gap" increased significantly [2][15][16]. 3.2 Social Financing: Government bonds still provided support, and the willingness to issue corporate bonds continued - Government Bonds: In July, the issuance scale of government bonds was large, with a new increase of 1.24 trillion yuan, 555.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year. According to the current issuance plan, government bonds would still support social financing in July, but from August to the end of the year, they might see a year - on - year decrease. If no additional bonds were issued at the end of the year, the peak of the annual social financing growth rate might appear in July [3][17]. - Corporate Bonds: In July, the willingness to issue corporate bonds was still strong, with a new increase of 27.91 billion yuan, 7.55 billion yuan more than the same period last year. With relatively low bond yields, the willingness to issue bonds increased seasonally, which might also "siphon" corporate loans. Un - discounted bills decreased by 16.39 billion yuan, close to the same period last year, and off - balance - sheet bills continued to be transferred to on - balance - sheet [3][21]. 3.3 Deposits: The growth rates of M1 and M2 continued to rise - M1: In July, the new - caliber M1 decreased by 2.9 trillion yuan, 832.4 billion yuan more than the same period in 2024, which was at a relatively high seasonal level. The wealth effect of the equity market supported the activation of funds to some extent, and the year - on - year reading of M1 increased significantly from 4.6% to 5.6%. - M2: Among the sub - items of M2, non - bank deposits were the main support. Driven by the recovery of the equity market, non - bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan in July, 1.39 trillion yuan more than the same period in 2024. After the cross - quarter in July, corporate deposits showed an outflow state, decreasing by 1.46 trillion yuan, but due to the low - base effect of the general deposit outflow after manual interest compensation in 2024, the decrease was 320.9 billion yuan less year - on - year [3][23][30].