国新国证期货早报-20250814

Variety Views - On August 13, A-share major indices rose; Shanghai Composite Index had eight consecutive positive days, hitting a new high since December 2021. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to 3683.46, Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76% to 11551.36, and ChiNext Index rose 3.62% to 2496.50. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2.1509 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 269.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4176.58, up 32.75 [1]. - On August 13, the coke weighted index fell back after hitting resistance, closing at 1722.2, down 44.8; the coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1226.6 yuan, down 37.1 [1][2]. - The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward on August 13, affected by the rise of US sugar and the increase of spot quotes. Due to the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted at night [3]. - The Shanghai rubber showed an oscillatory adjustment trend on August 13. The warning of heavy rain in Thailand limited the downward adjustment space. At night, it fluctuated slightly [4]. - On August 12, palm oil prices reached a new high this year, but the upward momentum weakened. The main contract P2509 closed with an increase of 0.66%. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 increased significantly compared with the same period last month [4][6]. - On August 13, CBOT soybeans continued to rise. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the estimated sown area of US soybeans, and the domestic M2601 main contract rose 2.33%. However, the high inventory of domestic soybean meal limited the upward space [7]. - On August 13, the live pig futures price trended weakly. The current low - season consumption and expected increase in supply put pressure on prices [8]. - The trading sentiment of Shanghai copper remained weak. It may decline in the short term, but the approaching traditional peak season may provide some support [8]. - On the night of August 13, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14120 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 81 lots compared with the previous day [9]. - On August 13, the main contract of log 2509 opened at 821.5, closed at 813, and decreased its position by 1073 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat. The increase in foreign quotes drove up the domestic futures price [9]. - On August 13, the main contract of iron ore 2601 closed flat. The supply tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in a short - term oscillatory trend [10][12]. - On August 13, the main contract of asphalt 2510 closed down 0.03%. The demand was weak but had recovery expectations, and the low inventory supported the price, leading to a short - term oscillatory trend [12]. - On August 13, rb2510 was reported at 3222 yuan/ton, and hc2510 was reported at 3451 yuan/ton. The steel price increase slowed down and may have a narrow - range adjustment [12]. - On August 13, ao2509 was reported at 3230 yuan/ton. The short - term supply was tight, but the medium - term supply would increase due to profit - driven capacity recovery [13]. - On August 13, al2509 was reported at 20790 yuan/ton. The aluminum price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and have upward momentum in the medium term [13]. Influencing Factors Coke and Coking Coal - Coke spot prices had five rounds of increases, and the 6th round was proposed. The coking profit improved slightly, and the coking start - up rate was expected to increase. The supply of coke was tight, but the steel - coke game continued [3]. - For coking coal, the expectation of future production cuts increased. The import situation was mixed, and the demand was strong with the potential to increase prices [3]. Sugar - The increase in Brazilian sugar export shipments and the improvement of demand expectations in the physical market supported the rise of US sugar, which in turn drove up Zhengzhou sugar [3]. Palm Oil - The significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 compared with the same period last month supported the upward movement of palm oil prices [6]. Soybean Meal - The US Department of Agriculture's adjustment of soybean sown area and yield estimates affected the supply expectation. The rise in US soybean prices increased the cost of imported soybeans, but the high domestic inventory limited the upward space of soybean meal prices [7]. Live Pigs - The current low - season consumption and the expected increase in supply from group farms and the release of previously - pressed large pigs put pressure on live pig prices [8]. Copper - The supply of domestic copper increased, but the high cost of holders limited the decline of spot premiums. The approaching "Golden September and Silver October" might support copper prices [8]. Iron Ore - The decrease in global iron ore shipments and arrivals tightened the supply, while the high iron - water production and high profitability of steel mills supported the demand, resulting in a short - term oscillatory trend [12]. Asphalt - The decrease in asphalt production capacity utilization and shipments, along with weak demand but low inventory, led to a short - term oscillatory trend [12]. Steel - The slow resumption of domestic coal mines and weakening downstream procurement enthusiasm affected the coking coal market. The short - term steel price increase slowed down due to limited improvement in terminal demand [12]. Alumina - The short - term supply of alumina was affected by various factors, but the medium - term supply would increase due to profit - driven capacity recovery [13]. Aluminum - The continuous inventory accumulation of aluminum was limited, and the approaching peak season and expected Fed rate cut in September might drive up aluminum prices [13].