Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. Macro - financial: For stock index futures, consider buying on dips; for treasury bond futures, a steepening strategy can be considered. The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile, and double - coke prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. For double - silicon, avoid chasing short positions without non - fundamental positive disturbances [14][15][16]. 2. Non - ferrous and new materials: Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while alumina prices may be strong in the short term but face supply surplus pressure in the long term. Zinc prices are expected to weaken after the macro influence fades [24][25]. 3. Agricultural products: For cotton, short - term watch and long - term short on rallies; for sugar, pay attention to short - covering opportunities during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking. For eggs, short on rallies for near - term contracts; for apples, use a light - position positive spread strategy; for corn, short on far - term contracts; for dates, stay on the sidelines; for pigs, be cautious and short on near - term contracts [30][33][35][37][39][40][41]. 4. Energy and chemicals: For crude oil, consider shorting on rallies; for fuel oil, it follows crude oil and has a complex fundamental situation; for plastics, expect limited rebound space; for rubber, it is slightly strong in the short term; for methanol, it will continue to be weakly volatile; for asphalt, it follows crude oil; for LPG, it is prone to fall and difficult to rise; for pulp, observe the inventory and trading volume; for logs, observe and consider hedging on rallies; for urea, the futures price is weak; for synthetic rubber, it is slightly strong in the short term [44][45][46][47][48][51][53][54][55][56][57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information 1. In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9% [10]. 2. Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial cooperation to boost consumption [10]. 3. In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [10]. 4. Market supervision and industry and information technology departments plan to strengthen the management of intelligent connected new energy vehicles [11]. 5. The US Treasury Secretary called for a new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting that the US interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level [11]. 6. The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the daily position - opening limit and handling fee rate for coking coal futures contracts [12]. Macro - financial Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider buying on dips. The A - share market rose on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high since December 2021. However, the on - balance - sheet new RMB loans turned negative in July [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Consider a steepening strategy. The money market is loose, and the bond market first weakened and then strengthened. The long - end bonds can be considered to maintain a weakly volatile and bearish view, and the steepening of the yield curve is still relatively advantageous [15][16]. Black Metals - Steel and Ore: Policies are becoming milder, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and prices are expected to be volatile. Steel mill profits are mixed, and iron ore prices are also volatile [16][17][18]. - Double - coke: Prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there is also downward pressure [18][19]. - Double - silicon: The current price is in a reasonable range, and the medium - term supply - demand logic is weak. Avoid chasing short positions without non - fundamental positive disturbances [19]. Non - ferrous and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to weak demand in the off - season but may rise in the future. Alumina prices may be strong in the short term but face supply surplus pressure in the long term [24]. - Zinc: Social inventories are increasing, and zinc prices are expected to weaken after the macro influence fades [25]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile, but there is pressure from industrial hedging [26][27]. - Polysilicon: In the short term, it may return to the contradiction between fundamentals and warehouse receipts, with wide - range fluctuations [28]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Short - term watch and long - term short on rallies due to low downstream demand and new crop production pressure [30][31][32]. - Sugar: Domestic sugar stocks are low, but the increase in processed sugar may restrict prices. Pay attention to short - covering opportunities during stocking [33][34][35]. - Eggs: The Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, but the supply pressure is large. Short on rallies for near - term contracts and consider a short 10 - long 12 spread strategy [35][36]. - Apples: Use a light - position positive spread strategy. Pay attention to the price changes of early - maturing apples and new - season Fuji apples [37]. - Corn: Short on far - term contracts. The market sentiment is bearish, but there is support at the bottom [38][39]. - Dates: Stay on the sidelines as the spot market in Hebei is weak [40]. - Pigs: Be cautious and short on near - term contracts. The supply pressure is high, and pay attention to the development of African swine fever [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Consider shorting on rallies as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern [44]. - Fuel Oil: Follows crude oil. The current fundamental situation is complex, with factors such as power demand in the Middle East and low - sulfur fuel oil demand affecting it [45]. - Plastic: The rebound space is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to prevent callback risks [46]. - Rubber: Slightly strong in the short term, but be cautious when chasing highs [47]. - Methanol: Continue to be weakly volatile due to the contradiction between tight inland supply and loose port supply [48][49]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price in Shandong has support, but the futures price has limited upward space [50]. - Asphalt: Follows crude oil, and its own fundamentals are in the off - season, with slow inventory reduction [51]. - Polyester Industry Chain: Unilateral prices are expected to follow the cost downward. Consider a strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA [52]. - LPG: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - long term, making the price prone to fall [53]. - Pulp: The market trading has improved, and the price has followed the increase. Observe the inventory and trading volume [54]. - Logs: The price is affected by capital, and it is recommended to observe and consider hedging on rallies [55]. - Urea: The futures price is weak due to weak fundamentals [56]. - Synthetic Rubber: Slightly strong in the short term, be cautious when chasing highs [57].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250814
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-14 01:42