Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. For example, PX has increasing supply - demand pressure and a weakening trend; PTA has low processing fees and attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts [2][9]. - Different futures have different trend intensities, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For instance, PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Dynamics: PX prices fell on the 13th, affected by falling naphtha prices and weakening downstream demand. PTA spot prices declined, and MEG had device operation changes such as a 40 - ton/year device reducing load and an 80 - ton/year device restarting [6][7]. - Trend and Suggestions: PX has a weakening trend, with the main contract shifting positions and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. PTA has a weakening trend, and in the medium - term, hold long MEG and short PTA positions. MEG has a weak - oscillating trend, and maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread within the -50 to 0 range and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [9][10]. Rubber - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price and trading volume of rubber changed slightly. In the spot market, the prices of some rubber varieties declined slightly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased [12][14]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend, and it is expected to oscillate [12]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased. In the spot market, the prices of some butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased slightly. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [16][18]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. In the short - term, it may be slightly stronger, and in the medium - term, it will operate within the fundamental valuation range [18]. Asphalt - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the prices of asphalt contracts decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory rate decreased slightly [19]. - Market News: This week, the domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased, the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt increased [35]. - Trend: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [28]. LLDPE - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price of LLDPE decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly [36]. - Market Situation: Macro data is bearish, the cost of polyethylene decreases, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall trend still faces pressure [36][37]. - Trend: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [39]. PP - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price of PP decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly [40]. - Market Situation: The cost of PP is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, the supply pressure increases, but short - term short - chasing needs to be cautious [41]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [42]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong are provided [44]. - Market Situation: The cost support of caustic soda is strong, the peak - season demand is expected, and the export support is still strong [46]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [47]. Pulp - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price of pulp increased, and the trading volume and open interest increased. In the spot market, the prices of some pulp varieties changed slightly [51]. - Market News: The spot price of hardwood pulp increased, and the price of softwood pulp was stable. The price of household paper was in a range - bound state [52][54]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [51]. Glass - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price of glass increased slightly, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions were stable [57]. - Market Situation: The domestic float - glass price was stable with minor fluctuations, and the futures had limited impact on the spot [57]. - Trend: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [57]. Methanol - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price of methanol decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions changed slightly [60]. - Market Situation: The methanol spot price index increased slightly, and the short - term market is in a narrow - range oscillation pattern [62]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [63]. Urea - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price of urea decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions were stable [65]. - Market News: The inventory of urea enterprises increased this week, and the short - term market will oscillate within a range [66]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [67]. Styrene - Fundamental Data: The prices of styrene contracts decreased, and the profit of non - integrated and integrated production decreased [68]. - Market Situation: Pure benzene is short - term strong, while the fundamentals of styrene are weak. Focus on compressing the profit of styrene [69]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [68]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price of soda ash decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly [73]. - Market Situation: The domestic soda - ash market continued to oscillate at a low level, with supply increasing and demand tepid [73]. - Trend: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [73]. LPG and Propylene - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the prices of LPG and propylene contracts changed slightly, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The PDH and MTBE operating rates changed [77]. - Market News: The expected prices of Saudi CP for propane and butane changed. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [82][83][84]. - Trend: The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [81]. PVC - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the price of PVC decreased, and the basis and 9 - 1 monthly spread are provided. In the spot market, the price was stable with a weakening tendency [85]. - Market Situation: The fundamentals of PVC have not improved significantly. The high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change, and the market may short the chlor - alkali profit [85][86]. - Trend: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [88]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts decreased. In the spot market, the prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [89]. - Trend: The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both 0, indicating a neutral trend. Fuel oil continues to decline, and the short - term weakness will continue [89]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: In the futures market, the prices of container freight index (European line) contracts changed. The SCFIS and SCFI for European and US - West routes decreased [91]. - Trend: Hold 10 short positions as appropriate [29]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Trend: In the short - term, it is an oscillating market. Long PF and short PR [32]. Offset - Printing Paper - Trend: It oscillates at a low level and has limited upward momentum [33]. Pure Benzene - Trend: It is expected to be slightly stronger and oscillate in the short - term [34].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250814
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-14 01:40