宝城期货原油早报-20250814

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 will likely run weakly with a volatile and weak trend in the short - term and a volatile trend in the medium - term. The main reason is the bearish factors in the market, especially the expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed slightly lower by 0.92% to 485.7 yuan/barrel on Wednesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Thursday [5]. - The short - term view for crude oil 2510 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with an overall reference view of running weakly [1]. Market Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report. Due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, especially with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market is expected to face a record - high supply glut next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5].