研究所晨会观点精萃-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has led to a weaker US dollar and rising global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth slowed in July, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period has reduced short - term tariff uncertainties, with different asset classes showing various trends [2]. - Different sectors in the market have different outlooks. For example, the stock market may be strong in the short - term, precious metals are supported at high levels, the black metal market is expected to be volatile, the non - ferrous and new energy sectors are showing weakness, the energy and chemical sector is facing downward pressure, and the agricultural products market has various influencing factors [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US Treasury Secretary indicated a possible 50 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed, and multiple Fed officials' dovish stances led to a decline in the US dollar index and rising global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with economic growth slowing. Trade deficit decreased, and net exports' contribution to the economy weakened. Policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff uncertainties. Asset trends: stocks may be strong in the short - term, bonds may oscillate and correct, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors like armament restructuring, industrial metals, and components, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress, with short - term upward macro - drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices showed different trends on Wednesday. Moderate inflation data in the US strengthened the expectation of a September rate cut, pushing up the expectation of a loose environment. The weakening US dollar and lower 10 - year Treasury yields supported precious metals at high levels. Gold has a long - term bullish outlook, and long - term positions can be considered when it retraces to support levels [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel futures and spot markets weakened on Wednesday. Japan's anti - dumping investigation on steel from South Korea and China dampened market sentiment. Demand continued to weaken, inventories increased, and production decreased. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended in the short - term [5]. - Iron Ore: Futures and spot prices of iron ore weakened slightly. With the expansion of production restrictions in the north, iron ore supply decreased, but port inventories increased, and prices may weaken in the short - term [5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices weakened slightly. Demand for ferroalloys decreased due to a decline in steel production. Silicon manganese prices were stable, and manganese ore prices were firm. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [6][7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - Copper: US inflation data met expectations overall. The expectation of a rate cut increased, but the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is low. Copper inventories are at a high level, and terminal demand may weaken [8]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices rose slightly on Wednesday. However, its fundamentals weakened, with domestic and LME inventories increasing. The medium - term upside is limited [8]. - Aluminum Alloy: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some enterprises. It is in the off - season, with weak demand. Prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term [8]. - Tin: Supply - side开工率 increased slightly, and the mining end may become looser. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: Prices fluctuated sharply on Wednesday. Spot prices increased, and the supply shortage due to mine shutdowns supported prices. Long - term bullish outlook, but pay attention to the progress of mine type changes [10][11]. - Industrial Silicon: Prices fell on Wednesday. Pay attention to the influence of coking coal and polysilicon, and the cash - flow cost support [11]. - Polysilicon: Prices fell on Wednesday. The number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating stronger hedging and delivery intentions. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [12]. Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: US crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and the IEA warned of a record supply surplus next year, causing oil prices to decline. Pay attention to the impact of the meeting on promoting a cease - fire in Ukraine [13][14]. - Asphalt: Crude oil costs were low and oscillating, and asphalt prices followed with limited weakness. Inventory removal was slow, and it may continue to be weak and oscillating [14]. - PX: PX prices oscillated narrowly. PTA device production cuts and low processing fees limited the recovery, and it will oscillate in the short - term [14]. - PTA: PTA prices declined slightly. Profit recovery was limited, and demand growth was restricted. Supply pressure decreased, and it is expected to be range - bound in August [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: Prices fell. Inventory pressure was relieved to a limited extent, and supply may increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside and a risk of a slight decline [15][16]. - Short - fiber: Prices fell due to sector resonance. Terminal orders were average, and inventory accumulated. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [16]. - Methanol: Prices oscillated narrowly. Supply and demand contradictions were not prominent, but there were regional differences. It is expected to oscillate, and the spread between contracts is expected to narrow [17]. - PP: Spot prices oscillated narrowly. Supply was abundant, and demand was in the off - season. It is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [18]. - LLDPE: Prices rose. Supply pressure remained, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: CBOT soybean prices rose overnight. The USDA's unexpected reduction in the planting area supported the market. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and Sino - US soybean trade relations [19]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: High domestic inventories of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. If there are no major weather risks in South America, there is no stable market foundation in the medium - term. If China continues to purchase US soybeans or Canada's rapeseed products enter the market, prices may face downward pressure [20]. - Soybean, Rapeseed, and Palm Oil: Rapeseed oil inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and supply is expected to shrink. Soybean oil's cost is stable, and its supply - demand situation will improve in the fourth quarter. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong. Domestic rapeseed oil was affected by policies, and related oils have limited short - term upside. Attention should be paid to soybean oil's catch - up rally and the buy - soybean - sell - palm oil arbitrage [20]. - Corn: Northeast corn prices are weak, with inactive trading. Supply is expected to be sufficient in late August, and the corn futures market is weak [21][22]. - Hogs: After continuous price drops, farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Supply pressure may ease, and pig prices may stabilize [22].