宁证期货今日早评-20250814

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Rubber: With stronger raw material prices, improved demand expectations, and positive macro - factors, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Gold: Short - term rebound, but medium - term outlook is still bearish and oscillating. Attention should be paid to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold [2]. - Crude Oil: Expected to oscillate weakly. The outcome of the US - Russia negotiation on August 15 should be watched [4]. - PTA: Follows the crude oil trend and oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and uncertain downstream demand [5]. - Pig: Short - term over - optimism is not advisable, while long - term long positions in the LH2511 contract can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - Silver: Oscillates with a bullish bias as the probability of a September interest rate cut remains high [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: There is a continuous tug - of - war between bulls and bears in the market [9]. - Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds: Short - term bullish, but medium - term outlook is bearish and oscillating [9]. - Coking Coal: Short - term price correction space is limited, and subsequent coal production and downstream production cuts should be monitored [10]. - Ferrosilicon: Prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, but there are concerns about the medium - to - long - term fundamentals [10]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. - Plastic: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. - Glass: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [14]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection is affected by rainfall. China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and demand expectations are improving. The Fed's potential interest rate cut also boosts the market [1]. Gold - The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict influence the gold market [2]. Crude Oil - The IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts, and the EIA reported an increase in US production and inventory. The US - Russia meeting may impact the geopolitical support for oil prices [4]. PTA - PTA device maintenance has increased, but the operating rate is expected to rise. Downstream polyester demand has uncertainties due to profit issues [5]. Pig - Pig prices are rising steadily with regional differences. Demand remains weak, and investment strategies vary in the short and long term [6]. Palm Oil - The USDA report shows stable production and export forecasts, with a slight decrease in consumption and inventory. Market sentiment is bullish in the short term [7]. Silver - Fed officials are trying to cool the interest - rate cut expectations, but a September cut is still likely, leading to a bullish outlook for silver [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply shortages may drive prices up, but demand - side substitution and other factors restrict price increases [9]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are falling, and the market may rebound in the short term, but the medium - term outlook is bearish [9]. Coking Coal - The production and inventory of washed coal are increasing, and downstream demand has support, but the market is in a wait - and - see state [10]. Ferrosilicon - The cost is supported, but production is increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand relationship may become looser [10]. Methanol - Port inventory is accumulating, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Plastic - Supply pressure may ease, and the market is expected to oscillate with weak cost support [13]. Glass - Production is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is rising, with the market expected to oscillate [14].