棉花：新作丰产预期限制期价涨幅

Report Title - New Crop's High-Yield Expectation Limits the Increase of Cotton Futures Price [1] Core View - The new crop's high-yield expectation restricts the increase of cotton futures prices. The cotton market shows a complex situation with different trends in various aspects such as futures prices, spot trading, and market demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: CF2601 closed at 14,130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.07% and a night - session closing price of 14,120 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change; CY2511 closed at 20,195 yuan/ton with a 0.90% daily increase and a night - session closing price of 20,185 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change; ICE Cotton 12 closed at 67.7 cents/pound with a - 1.08% daily change [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CF2601 was 645,549 lots, an increase of 329,664 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 784,336 lots, an increase of 34,927 lots; the trading volume of CY2511 was 10,265 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 19,810 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,006, a decrease of 81, and the effective forecast was 281, a decrease of 1; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 74, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, with an increase of 74 [2] - Spot Prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,142 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a 0.66% increase; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase; the 3128B index was 15,188 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; the international cotton index M was 75.93 cents/pound, an increase of 2 cents/pound with a 2.21% increase [2] - Price Spreads: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News Domestic Cotton Spot Situation - The spot trading of cotton slightly improved, but the improvement was limited. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and the spot basis was generally stable. Different regions had different basis ranges for cotton sales [2][3] Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises' Situation - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slightly improved, with increased sales. Spinning mills raised their quotes, and the price center of cotton yarn slightly increased. The all - cotton grey fabric market was partially better, but the overall improvement was limited, with only small orders being traded. Downstream inquiries and orders recovered moderately. Dyeing mills' orders were average, and some expected an improvement in September orders. The loom factory's operating rate recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level remained high but showed a downward trend [2][3] US Cotton Situation - The ICE cotton futures slightly declined yesterday. After two consecutive days of increases, ICE cotton had a technical adjustment. However, the significant downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast in the USDA's August supply - demand report is expected to support the ICE cotton futures [2][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6]