国泰君安期货所长早读-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's social financing and credit data in July showed that the increase in social financing scale was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. Analyzing economic and financial situations does not require excessive attention to single - month data [6][7]. - The August USDA report was bullish for US soybeans, tightening the supply - demand balance sheet. Both old and new crop balance sheets tightened, and there is still room for a decline in US soybean production. If the balance sheet remains tight, there is upside potential for US soybeans, which will also open up upside space for domestic soybean meal futures prices [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, upstream factories are gradually resuming production, market sentiment is weakening, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation, which will drive the price down. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy [10]. - For the container shipping index (European line), near - month special - price cabins and the expectation of extra ships in the distant end have weakened market sentiment. The fundamental supply - demand balance is tending to be loose, and the freight rate is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - From January to July, China's cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In July, the increase in social financing scale was 1.16 trillion yuan, social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and in July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. The increase in RMB deposits in the first seven months was 18.44 trillion yuan, and in July, the new RMB deposits were 500 billion yuan. At the end of July, the broad - money (M2) balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, the narrow - money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, and the M2 - M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, 0.5 percentage points narrower than the previous month [7]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The tariff misunderstanding affected the price spread, and the trend strength was 1 [14][19][24]. - Silver: There was a slight rebound, and the trend strength was 1 [14][19][24]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: Lacked obvious drivers, and the price fluctuated. The trend strength was 0 [14][26][28]. - Zinc: The price was under pressure, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][29][30]. - Lead: The domestic spot market weakened, and the price was under pressure. The trend strength was 0 [14][32]. - Tin: Traded in a range, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][35][39]. - Aluminum: Traded in a range, alumina had a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy was 0 [14][40][42]. - Nickel: The support logic at the ore end was weakened, and the smelting - end logic limited the price elasticity. The trend strength was 0 [14][43][47]. - Stainless steel: The multi - and short - side game intensified, and the steel price fluctuated. The trend strength was 0 [14][43][47]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate lithium: The auction price was slightly at a discount to the market price, and the range - bound trend might continue. The trend strength was 0 [14][48][50]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment cooled down, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][51][54]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to news - related disturbances, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][52][54]. - Iron ore: Fluctuated repeatedly, and the trend strength was 0 [14][56][57]. - Rebar: Fluctuated widely, and the trend strength was 0 [14][59][63]. - Hot - rolled coil: Fluctuated widely, and the trend strength was 0 [14][60][63]. - Ferrosilicon: The sector sentiment was weak, and it fluctuated widely. The trend strength was 0 [14][64][66]. - Silicomanganese: The sector sentiment was weak, and it fluctuated widely. The trend strength was 0 [14][64][66]. - Coke: Traded with a bullish bias, and the trend strength was not explicitly stated but inferred as bullish from the description [14][67]. - Coking coal: Traded with a bullish bias, and the trend strength was not explicitly stated but inferred as bullish from the description [14][67]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The origin had strong supply and demand, and a long - position strategy at low prices was recommended [14][17]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans were strong, and soybean oil traded at a high level with fluctuations [14][17]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal might follow with a bullish bias [14][17]. - Corn: Traded in a range [14][17]. - Sugar: Traded with an upward trend [14][17]. - Cotton: The expectation of a bumper new crop limited the increase in futures prices [14][17]. - Eggs: Adjusted with fluctuations [14][17]. - Hogs: The spot market was weak [14][17]. - Peanuts: The near - term contract was strong, and the far - term contract was weak [14][17]. 3.2.5 Others - LPG: The market valuation was low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction [14][17]. - Propylene: Supply and demand tightened, and the price had some support [14][17]. - PVC: Traded with a weak bias [14][17]. - Fuel oil: Continued to decline, and the short - term weakness persisted [14][17]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Traded with a weak bias at night, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market was temporarily stable [14][17]. - Container shipping index (European line): Hold short positions in the October contract as appropriate [14][17]. - Short - fiber: Traded in a short - term range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy was recommended [14][17]. - Bottle chips: Traded in a short - term range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy was recommended [14][17]. - Offset printing paper: Traded at a low level, and it was difficult to rise [14][17]. - Pure benzene: Traded with a short - term bullish bias [14][17].