商品期货早班车-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's credit data, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals[2][3][4][6][7][8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Wednesday, and market expectations for interest - rate cuts increased[2]. - Fundamentals: There are expectations of an early Fed rate cut, possible changes in the Fed chair appointment, geopolitical tensions, and changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions[2]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic; suggest temporarily observing silver due to inventory reduction and possible policy changes[2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract closed +0.27% higher at 20790 yuan/ton; the alumina 2509 contract closed - 2.36% lower at 3230 yuan/ton[3]. - Fundamentals: For electrolytic aluminum, supply capacity increased slightly while demand had no obvious improvement; for alumina, supply capacity was stable and demand came from high - load electrolytic aluminum production[3]. - Trading Strategy: For electrolytic aluminum, suggest observing as the price may fall after the positive sentiment fades; for alumina, suggest holding long positions and observing for non - participants[3]. Zinc - Market Performance: The zinc 2509 contract closed - 0.13% lower at 22,600 yuan/ton, and social inventory increased[3][4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased significantly, processing fees rose, and consumption was in the off - season with开工 rates dropping[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest selling short at high prices[4]. Lead - Market Performance: The lead 2509 contract closed +0.09% higher at 16,930 yuan/ton, and social inventory decreased[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply had regional differentiation, and consumption was affected by high - temperature holidays in the battery industry[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing and waiting for inventory reduction or production cut signals[4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new furnaces opened, and demand had marginal improvement in some areas[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing as the price is expected to fluctuate widely[4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main LC2511 contract closed at 85,100 yuan/ton, up +3.1%[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply may face shortages in the future, and demand is in the peak season. Inventory increased recently[4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, suggest observing; in the long - term, suggest going long at low prices if supply shortages persist[4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a complex situation with mixed signals[4]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, affected by policy news[4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3216 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Building material supply - demand was neutral, and plate demand was stable. There was a significant structural differentiation[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in rebar 2510, with a reference range of 3180 - 3240 yuan[6]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore 2601 contract closed at 796 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand were neutral - strong, and the market had expectations of a Fed rate cut and China's credit data[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in iron ore 2601, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan[6]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1236.5 yuan/ton, down 70.5 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand was relatively loose but improving, and the futures were over - valued[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in coking coal 2601, with a reference range of 1200 - 1270 yuan[6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to rise overnight[7]. - Fundamentals: Supply was loose in the near - term and tight in the long - term; demand had differences in the new US soybean crop[7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are strong in the short - term, and the domestic market follows the international cost[7]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price fell[7]. - Fundamentals: Wheat substitution, import auctions, and new - crop cost pressure affected the price[7][8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures are expected to rebound after continuous decline[8]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5664 yuan/ton, up 0.32%[8]. - Fundamentals: Brazilian production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure[8]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options[8]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose[8]. - Fundamentals: International cotton growth progress and domestic data adjustment affected the price[8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices and use a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,300 yuan/ton[8]. Logs - Market Performance: The log 09 contract closed at 813 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.39%[8]. - Fundamentals: Spot prices rose, and the market had expectations for the future, with short - term focus on delivery[8]. - Trading Strategy: Observe[8]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was in the seasonal growth period, and demand was relatively weak, with inventory accumulation[8]. - Trading Strategy: It is strong in the short - term and recommended for long - term allocation, focusing on production and biodiesel policies[8]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg 2509 contract fell, and the spot price was stable[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and demand had seasonal changes, with cost moving down[8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly[8]. Pigs - Market Performance: The live - hog 2511 contract declined, and the spot price rose[9]. - Fundamentals: Consumption was weak seasonally, and supply would increase in the short - and medium - term[9]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust[9]. Energy Chemical LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased domestically and decreased in imports, and demand improved in the agricultural film sector[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[10]. PVC - Market Performance: The v09 contract closed at 5000, down 0.7%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, demand was average, and inventory accumulated[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. Rubber - Market Performance: The rubber price rose slightly and then fell, with inventory decreasing[10]. - Fundamentals: Overseas raw material prices provided support[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate strongly in the short - term[10]. Glass - Market Performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1060, down 1.6%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase slightly, inventory accumulated, and demand recovered seasonally but was still weak[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated among industries[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell due to demand forecast cuts and inventory accumulation[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased, and demand had mixed signals[11]. - Trading Strategy: Look for opportunities to short the SC main contract around 520 yuan/barrel[11]. Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract oscillated slightly, with a general market trading atmosphere[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase in the future, and demand was affected by export prospects[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The sa01 contract closed at 1390, down 0.8%[12]. - Fundamentals: Supply was operating normally with high inventory, and downstream demand was weak[12]. - Trading Strategy: Observe due to production - cut expectations[12].