国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250814

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2]. - Soybean oil: As US soybeans are strong, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - Soybean meal: Following the rise of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate stronger [2]. - Soybean: Expected to fluctuate in a corrective manner [2]. - Corn: Expected to move in a range [2]. - Sugar: Expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Cotton: The expected bumper harvest of new crops restricts the upward potential of futures prices [2]. - Eggs: Expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Hogs: Spot prices are mainly weak [2]. - Peanuts: Near - term contracts are stronger than long - term contracts [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase, and the night - session was 9,486 yuan/ton with the same increase. For soybean oil, the daily - session was 8,592 yuan/ton (+1.23%), and the night - session was 8,554 yuan/ton (- 0.44%). Rapeseed oil's daily - session was 10,069 yuan/ton (+2.72%), and the night - session was 9,976 yuan/ton (- 0.92%). Trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil for September, increasing the export tax to 10%. Indonesia saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Argentina's soybean sales and Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production forecasts changed [5][6][7]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,163 yuan/ton (+2.90%), and the night - session was 3,166 yuan/ton (+0.67%). DCE soybean 2511's daily - session was 4,107 yuan/ton (+1.83%), and the night - session was 4,080 yuan/ton (- 0.17%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory also had changes [9]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 13, CBOT soybean futures rose for the third consecutive day due to the USDA's lower - than - expected soybean production forecast [11]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, and soybean is 0 [11]. Corn - Fundamental Tracking: Corn futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding changes. For example, C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,279 yuan/ton (+0.89%), and the night - session was 2,286 yuan/ton (+0.31%) [13]. - Macro and Industry News: Corn prices in different regions showed different trends, and the prices of imported sorghum and barley were also reported [14]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [15]. Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The raw sugar price was 16.85 cents/pound (- 0.09%), the mainstream spot price was 5,980 yuan/ton (+30), and the futures main - contract price was 5,657 yuan/ton (+49). Price spreads also had changes [16]. - Macro and Industry News: In Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing progress accelerated in the first half of July, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar imports in June were 420,000 tons. There are supply - demand forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets [16][17][18]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [19]. Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,130 yuan/ton (+1.07%), and the night - session was 14,120 yuan/ton (- 0.07%). ICE cotton futures fell slightly. Spot prices of cotton in different regions increased slightly [21]. - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading improved slightly, the cotton yarn market improved, and the US Department of Agriculture significantly lowered the production forecast of US cotton in the 2025/26 season [21][22][23]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Egg futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [26]. - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Hogs - Fundamental Tracking: Hog spot and futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. For example, the Henan spot price was 13,930 yuan/ton (+50) [30]. - Market Logic: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and demand growth was limited. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the market is under pressure. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [32]. - Trend Intensity: Hog trend intensity is - 1 [31]. Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: Peanut spot and futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. For example, the price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with no change [34]. - Spot Market Focus: New peanuts in some regions are starting to be listed, and the prices of old peanuts are mostly stable. The growth of new peanuts is good [35]. - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].