中辉期货热卷早报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bullish [1] - Iron Ore: Short-term long participation [1] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - Steel Products: The steel market shows obvious off-season characteristics and is expected to fluctuate within a range. For rebar, the profit of blast furnaces is still good, and the profit of electric furnaces has improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, and hot metal production is at a high level. However, the demand side is still weak, and the trading volume of construction steel is hovering at a low level. The incomplete implementation of production restriction policies during the military parade supports the expectation of supply contraction, and raw material prices also bring disturbances. For hot-rolled coil, the production and apparent demand have decreased month-on-month, inventory has slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The export profit has significantly declined, which may affect future exports [1][3][4]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals show a decline in hot metal production. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased. The restocking of steel mills with low inventories has led to a firming of prices in the short term. Under the influence of fundamentals, iron ore prices are strong [1][7][8]. - Coke: Coke prices have had six rounds of increases, and the profit of coke enterprises has continued to improve. Some regions have announced production restriction policies during the military parade, which may lead to a certain contraction in supply. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, and production and inventory are relatively stable. In the medium term, raw material prices may still be supported by production restriction and reduction news and maintain a strong trend. In the short term, the current price is relatively high, and the exchange has introduced trading restrictions on coking coal, so there may be a short-term correction [1][10][11]. - Coking Coal: Domestically, coking coal production has remained flat month-on-month, and the absolute level is lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month-on-month, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of hot metal production is still high, and raw material demand is relatively stable. Recent news of coal mine production restrictions still supports the market, and the medium-term trend may remain strong. However, the exchange has restricted the trading limit of the 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fee, which may lead to a certain decline in market sentiment. There is a risk of short-term market fluctuations [1][13][14]. - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. A new round of demand has been concentratedly released, and the inquiry price for ferromanganese tender by a representative steel mill in August is 6,000 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to July. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals have weakened, factory inventories have continued to increase significantly, and delivery inventories are at a high level compared to the same period. The tender price of a representative steel mill for ferrosilicon in August is 6,030 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan/ton compared to the previous round [1][16][17]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - Rebar: Currently in a neutral position, short-term market conditions are prone to fluctuations. The expected price range is [3,190, 3,250] [1][4][5]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Currently in a neutral position, short-term market conditions may fluctuate. The expected price range is [3,410, 3,470] [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - The price is expected to be strong, and short-term long participation is recommended. The expected price range is [780, 815] [1][7][8]. Coke - Cautiously bullish. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see due to potential price corrections. The expected price range is [1,710, 1,760] [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - Cautiously bullish. In the short term, pay attention to the risk of market fluctuations and wait and see. The expected price range is [1,200, 1,260] [1][13][14]. Ferroalloys - Ferromanganese: Cautiously bullish. Continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke. The expected price range is [5,954, 6,194] [1][16][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Cautiously bullish. In the short term, the price is supported by market sentiment, but in the medium term, the price may be under pressure. The expected price range is [5,675, 5,965] [1][16][17].