Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-08-14 02:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry faces significant challenges regarding vehicle emissions, with motor vehicle exhaust being a major contributor to air pollution. Currently, motor vehicle NOx emissions account for over 34% of the national total, with heavy-duty trucks contributing 80% of this figure. In major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, vehicle emissions contribute over 40% to PM2.5 pollution [4][8] - The transition to the National VII emission standards is expected to create a market space exceeding 200 billion yuan from 2027 to 2030, driven by the need for new components and system upgrades to meet stricter emission requirements [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Mobile Source Air Pollution - Motor vehicle exhaust is a leading source of air pollution, with heavy-duty trucks being the primary contributors to NOx emissions [4][8] - In 2023, the total emissions from mobile sources reached 1,924.6 million tons, with motor vehicles accounting for over 70% of this total [12][19] 2. Historical Standards Review and Outlook - The National VI emission standards are significantly stricter than previous standards, reflecting a trend towards tighter regulations and alignment with international standards [47][48] - The National VII standards are being developed with a focus on reducing emissions and improving vehicle durability, with a phased implementation strategy [48][51] 3. National VII Gradual Implementation - The National VII standards are expected to introduce new components focused on cold start emissions reduction, NOx reduction, and monitoring system upgrades, creating substantial market opportunities [4][3] - The projected incremental market space for automotive after-treatment systems from 2027 to 2030 is estimated at 2,442.2 million yuan, 4,813.0 million yuan, 6,357.0 million yuan, and 7,331.0 million yuan respectively [4][3] 4. Related Companies - Companies with strong technical capabilities and broad product layouts in the after-treatment sector are recommended for investment, including Yunyi Electric, Aikelan, Zhongzi Technology, and Weifu High-Tech [4][3]