豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕或跟随偏强震荡，豆一：回调震荡

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed higher, reaching a one - and - a - half - month high, and the upward trend is expected to drive the DCE soybean meal to follow a relatively strong oscillation. The DCE soybean is expected to have a corrective oscillation [1][3]. - The significant reduction in the USDA's soybean production forecast due to a large cut in planting area is the main reason for the increase in soybean prices [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4107 yuan/ton during the day session, up 74 yuan (+1.83%), and 4080 yuan/ton at night, down 7 yuan (-0.17%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3163 yuan/ton during the day session, up 89 yuan (+2.90%), and 3166 yuan/ton at night, up 21 yuan (+0.67%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1042 cents/bushel, up 9.75 cents (+0.94%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 297.2 dollars/short ton, up 5.4 dollars (+1.85%) [1]. - Spot Prices: In Shandong, the soybean meal (43%) price is 3080 - 3110 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China, it is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Industrial Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.46 million tons per day, and the inventory was 96.09 million tons per week [1]. Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher for the third consecutive day, reaching a one - and - a - half - month high. The USDA significantly reduced the soybean production forecast due to a 2.5 million - acre cut in planting area, which was far lower than market expectations [3]. - Analysts expect the net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons for the week ending August 7 to be 200,000 - 700,000 tons and 400,000 - 900,000 tons respectively [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean is 0 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the reporting day) [3].