Guoxin Securities·2025-08-14 02:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [6][8]. Core Views - The real estate fundamentals are weakening, but the reshuffling of property companies is nearing completion [4]. - New home sales have turned negative again, with a 4% year-on-year decline in sales area for new residential properties in the first half of 2025 [1][16]. - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, with second-hand homes accounting for 46% of total residential transactions in 2024, up 16 percentage points from the lowest point in 2021 [2][92]. - The competition landscape is becoming clearer, with major state-owned enterprises dominating sales rankings [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales and Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the total sales area of new homes was 4.6 billion square meters, down 4% year-on-year, while the sales area of new residential properties was 3.8 billion square meters, accounting for 84% of total sales [1][16]. - The average selling price of existing homes was 0.8 million yuan per square meter, while the average price for new homes was 1.1 million yuan per square meter [1][37]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction volume of second-hand homes has been steadily increasing, with a 13% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 [2][112]. - The average ratio of second-hand to new home transactions in major cities has risen to 2.3, indicating a shift towards second-hand homes [2][112]. Land Transaction and Competition - The structure of land transactions is changing, with a 28% year-on-year increase in total transaction value for residential land in the first half of 2025, despite a 3% decline in transaction area [3][65]. - Major state-owned enterprises continue to lead in sales and land acquisition, with the top four companies maintaining their positions [4][4]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current weakening fundamentals in the real estate sector, the report suggests that while there may not be a strong upward trend in real estate stocks, recent policy changes in Beijing could signal the beginning of a new round of easing [5][5]. - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, Beike-W, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [5][8].