金融期货早班车-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. - For bond futures, with the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On August 13th, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to 3683.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76% to 11551.36 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.62% to 2496.5 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.74% to 1077.7 points. Market turnover was 2.1752 trillion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.91%), non - ferrous metals (+2.37%), and electronics (+2.01%) led the gains, while banks (-1.06%), coal (-0.81%), and food and beverages (-0.42%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2730, 233, and 2456 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of 7.6 billion, - 9.9 billion, - 12.3 billion, and 14.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +16.5 billion, +4.4 billion, - 11.1 billion, and - 9.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On August 13th, the yields of bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.398, a decrease of 2.13 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.564, a decrease of 1.33 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.662, a decrease of 0.75 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.038, a decrease of 0.76 bps [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Basis and Annualized Yield: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 62.53, 56.3, 5.78, and - 5.82 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 7.9%, - 7.72%, - 1.24%, and 1.85% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 49%, 25%, 46%, and 70% respectively [3]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and it is recommended to buy long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3.3 Bond Futures - Cash Bond Situation: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.01, and an IRR of 1.35%; for the 5 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 1.35 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.006, and an IRR of 1.39%; for the 10 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.008, and an IRR of 1.37%; for the 30 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.008, and an IRR of 1.5% [4]. - Funding Situation: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 118.5 billion yuan and withdrew 138.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [4]. - Trading Strategy: With the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent import and export and social activity sentiment have declined [10].