Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The domestic decision - makers have introduced a series of livelihood and consumption - promoting policies, but the demand repair needs time. The new RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan in July due to multiple factors, and the credit cycle has not started. Overseas, the market's expectation of the US interest rate cut has risen again [2]. - The market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September, but the US inflation stickiness has not been eradicated, and the dollar index may fluctuate around 98 in the short term [4]. - The A - share market rose significantly with heavy volume, and it is expected to have upward space in the short term, but the weak fundamentals may suppress the upward movement of the stock index center if the situation persists [6]. Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1755 on the previous trading day, up 156 basis points. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 68 basis points. The US inflation is generally stable, and the Jackson Hole meeting may be crucial [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise with heavy volume yesterday, and the small - cap stocks performed strongly. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 269.417 billion yuan. Foreign capital is accelerating its inflow into the Chinese stock market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The bond market was less affected by the strong rise of the A - share market. The 7 - month financing was still supported by government bonds, and the new loans turned negative. It is recommended to buy the next - quarter contracts at low prices [7]. Group 5: Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) continued to decline. The spot prices of some shipping routes have changed. It is expected that the EC will fluctuate and decline or continue to fluctuate in the future [8][9]. Group 6: Commodities - Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut within the year has risen. It is recommended to buy on dips for the medium - and long - term [11][13]. Group 7: Commodities - Base Metals - Copper prices were in high - level shock. The inflation data in the US is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be in high - level shock in the short term and have upward momentum in the medium term. Alumina is expected to be in weak shock, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate [17][19]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Tin prices fell slightly, and it is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [20][21]. Group 8: Commodities - Black Metals - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil followed the decline of coking coal and then stabilized slightly at night. The short - term market is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [22][24]. - Iron ore prices declined due to the cooling of sentiment. The short - term supply is neutral, and the demand is expected to be stable, with prices expected to fluctuate [25][26]. - Coking coal and coke prices opened lower with a gap. The supply reduction expectation of coking coal is strengthened, and the medium - and long - term trends are not pessimistic, but attention should be paid to the impact of Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limit [27][29]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese followed the decline of coal. The demand is supported in the short term, but the long - term demand is uncertain, and they follow the price fluctuations of coal [30][32]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices continued to fall due to the unexpected increase in EIA inventories. The supply surplus risk is increasing, and attention should be paid to the progress of the "Trump - Putin meeting" on the cease - fire in Ukraine [34][36]. - PX - PTA prices followed the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to expand the PTA processing fee at low prices [37][39]. - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be in a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Bottle - grade PET prices follow the cost side, and the processing fee is operated in a range [40][42]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [43][44]. - PP and PE prices mainly follow the macro - sentiment fluctuations. The supply and demand of PP are relatively stable, and PE is moving towards a pattern of both supply and demand growth [45][49]. - PVC is recommended to be short - allocated. It is in a state of high valuation, high inventory, and high warehouse receipts [50][51]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are expected to be in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to shrink the pure benzene - styrene price difference at high prices [52][54]. - Fuel oil prices are still weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices fell due to the drag of crude oil. Asphalt prices followed the cost side in weak shock [55][59]. - Rubber prices are under pressure above, with internal and external differentiation. It is recommended to expand the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber at low prices [60]. Group 10: Commodities - Building Materials - The prices of soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be in shock. Soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, glass is in a weak - balance state, and caustic soda needs to pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand [61][65]. - Log prices have limited downward space, and it is recommended to buy on dips [66]. Group 11: Agricultural Products - Hog prices are recommended to be short - sold at high prices, and appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged [67]. - Oilseeds are recommended to be bought on dips. The short - term decline space of domestic soybean - based products is limited, and the rapeseed - based products can be long - positioned after the short - term rise and fall [68][70]. - The prices of oils are running strongly. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have different influencing factors, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and relationships [71][72]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The low inventory of old cotton supports the price, and attention should be paid to the downstream stocking situation [72][73].
金融期货早评-20250814
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-14 02:29