国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and analysis for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Different commodities show different trends such as price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and strength or weakness in market sentiment [2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The price is affected by tariff - related issues, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of Comex gold 2510 was 3407.00 with a 0.22% daily increase [2][6][11]. - Silver: It shows a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of Comex silver 2510 was 38.550 with a 1.61% daily increase [2][6][11]. Base Metals - Copper: Lacks obvious driving forces and the price fluctuates. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79,380 with a 0.46% daily increase [2][13][15]. - Zinc: The price is under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22600, down 0.13% [2][16][17]. - Lead: The domestic spot market weakens, and the price is under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16930, up 0.09% [2][19]. - Tin: Trades within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269,820, down 0.14% [2][21][26]. - Aluminum: Trades within a range. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20790. Alumina shows a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][27]. - Nickel: The support logic at the ore end weakens, and the logic at the smelting end limits its upward potential. The trend intensity is 0. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,340 [2][30][34]. - Stainless Steel: The multi - empty game intensifies, and the steel price fluctuates. The trend intensity is 0. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,130 [2][30][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The auction price is slightly lower than the market price, and the range - bound trend may continue. The trend intensity is 0. The 2509 contract closed at 85,040 [2][35][37]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment cools down, with a trend intensity of - 1. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,600 [2][38][41]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to news - related disturbances, with a trend intensity of - 1. The PS2511 contract had certain trading volume and price changes [2][39][41]. - Iron Ore: Fluctuates repeatedly, with a trend intensity of 0. The 12601 contract closed at 795.0, down 0.75% [2][43][44]. - Rebar: Trades in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. The RB2510 contract closed at 3,222, down 0.92% [2][46][50]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Trades in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. The HC2510 contract closed at 3,451, down 0.66% [2][47][50]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate: The sector sentiment is weak, and they trade in a wide range. The trend intensities of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicate are both 0 [2][51][53]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Show a relatively strong upward - fluctuating trend. The trend intensities of both are 0. The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1245, down 5.2%, and the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1737, down 4.1% [2][54][56]. - Log: Fluctuates repeatedly, with a trend intensity of 0. The 2509 contract closed at 813, down 1.4% [2][57][60]. - Para - Xylene: The supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak [2][63]. - PTA: The processing fee is at a low level, and attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts [2][63]. - MEG: It is recommended to go long on MEG and short on PTA/PX [2][63]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The origin has strong supply and demand, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - Soybean Oil: The price of US soybeans is strong, and soybean oil fluctuates at a high level [2]. - Soybean Meal: The price of US soybeans rises, and Dalian soybean meal may follow a relatively strong upward - fluctuating trend [2]. - Soybean: Corrects and fluctuates [2]. - Corn: Fluctuates [2]. - Sugar: Rises while fluctuating [2]. - Cotton: The expectation of a bumper new crop limits the increase in futures prices [2]. - Egg: Adjusts while fluctuating [2]. - Live Pig: The spot market is weak [2]. - Peanut: The near - term contract is stronger than the far - term contract [2].