JHEC(SH:600273) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-14 02:41Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company, with a reasonable valuation range of 10.20 to 11.31 CNY, indicating a potential premium of 13% to 27% over the current stock price of 8.91 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic player in the fatty alcohol sector, leveraging significant cost advantages from its combined heat and power (CHP) production model, which integrates energy generation with product manufacturing [1][2]. - The fatty alcohol market is expected to grow, with a projected demand of 1.0462 million tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.01% from 2021 to 2024, driven by strong downstream demand in various industries [2]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through high dividend payouts and share buybacks, with a dividend payout ratio projected to reach 50% in 2025, resulting in an effective dividend yield of 7.40% to 9.02% [3][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2003, focuses on CHP as its core business, producing and selling fatty alcohols, PVC, steam, and chlor-alkali products, among others. It has a current capacity of 200,000 tons for fatty alcohols and 297,000 tons for chlor-alkali products [1][14]. Production and Cost Advantages - The chlor-alkali segment benefits from self-generated electricity, significantly reducing production costs. The company is the only chlor-alkali producer in the northern Zhejiang region, allowing for efficient logistics and cost savings through direct pipeline supply to downstream customers [2][15]. Market Position and Growth - The company is set to become the largest fatty alcohol producer in China, with a market share exceeding 30% by 2025, supported by the upcoming addition of 150,000 tons of production capacity [2][4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next five years, with expected net profits of 1.156 billion CNY in 2025, growing to 1.411 billion CNY by 2027 [4][8]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a high dividend payout policy, with a historical dividend payment rate of around 50% and a consistent share buyback program since 2018, enhancing shareholder value [3][26]. Research and Development - The company invests approximately 3% of its revenue in R&D, focusing on technological innovation to maintain its competitive edge in the industry [32][34].