2025年7月份金融数据点评：信贷扩张季节性回落，存款资金入市节奏提速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal decline in credit expansion, with a notable increase in the pace of deposit funds entering the market. The July financial data shows a year-on-year increase in M2 by 8.8% and M1 by 5.6%, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 billion, reflecting a drop of 3.1 trillion year-on-year [3][4][35]. Summary by Sections Credit Market Overview - In July, new RMB loans decreased by 500 billion, with a growth rate of 6.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from June. Economic activity showed signs of slowing, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.3, indicating contraction [4][5]. - Cumulatively, from January to July, new RMB loans totaled 12.9 trillion, a decrease of 660 billion year-on-year, with the second quarter seeing a similar trend [5][18]. Corporate Loans - New corporate loans in July amounted to 600 billion, down 700 billion year-on-year. The report notes a significant seasonal decline in short-term loans, with a negative growth of 5.5 trillion in July [17][19]. - The report indicates that the demand for medium to long-term loans remains weak due to economic uncertainties, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at 3.2% [19][31]. Retail Loans - Retail loans saw a significant decline, with a total of -4.893 trillion in July, reflecting a decrease of 2.793 trillion year-on-year. The report attributes this to weak consumer demand and low willingness to leverage among residents [28][30]. - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans remained stable at 3.1%, indicating continued pressure on the mortgage market [30][31]. Social Financing - In July, the total social financing increased by 1.16 trillion, with a growth rate of 9%, up 0.1 percentage points from June. The report emphasizes the role of government bonds in supporting social financing growth [35][39]. - The contribution of bank acceptance bills to social financing has increased significantly, accounting for 61% of the new social financing in July [39][40]. Monetary Supply - The report notes that M2 growth exceeded expectations at 8.8%, while M1 growth was recorded at 5.6%. The narrowing gap between M2 and M1 growth rates suggests a marginal improvement in monetary activation [41][43]. - Total deposits in July increased by 500 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 trillion, indicating a strong deposit growth trend despite the overall credit contraction [43][46].