Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Domestic Commodity Futures Mostly Decline, Black Series Generally Close Lower - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250814" [1] Group 2: Market Performance Domestic Main Commodities - Index futures generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.96%, a weekly increase of 2.15%, a monthly increase of 2.81%, a quarterly increase of 7.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.37% [4] - Treasury futures mostly had minor fluctuations. The 2 - year Treasury futures had a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.02%, a quarterly decrease of 0.13%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.59% [4] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index decreased by 0.20% weekly, 21.98% monthly, 13.4% quarterly, and 9.60% year - to - date [4] - Interest rates showed different trends. The 10Y Chinese bond yield increased by 7.9bp quarterly and 0.1bp year - to - date, while the 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 5bp quarterly and decreased by 26bp year - to - date [4] Popular Industries - Some industries like the grass - colored gold industry had good performance, with a daily increase of 1.28%, a weekly increase of 4.59%, a monthly increase of 4.37%, a quarterly increase of 11.54%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.85%. While some industries like the pharmaceutical industry had a daily decrease of 0.86%, a weekly decrease of 0.88%, a monthly decrease of 0.88%, a quarterly increase of 12.63%, and a year - to - date increase of 21.76% [4] Overseas Commodities - In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 1.44% daily, 0.43% weekly, 9.03% monthly, 2.91% quarterly, and 12.23% year - to - date [4] - Precious metals such as COMEX gold increased by 0.17% daily, decreased by 1.69% weekly, increased by 1.71% monthly, increased by 2.55% quarterly, and increased by 28.81% year - to - date [4] - In the non - ferrous metals sector, LME copper increased by 1.17% daily, 0.74% weekly, 2.43% monthly, decreased by 0.38% quarterly, and increased by 12.05% year - to - date [4] - In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans increased by 2.18% daily, 4.64% weekly, 4.24% monthly, 0.46% quarterly, and 2.20% year - to - date [4] Other Domestic Commodities - Many commodities showed various trends. For example, the shipping container freight rate to Europe (ECSA) increased by 5.96% daily, decreased by 7.17% weekly, decreased by 6.46% monthly, decreased by 0.44% quarterly, and decreased by 40.93% year - to - date [5] Group 3: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The overseas market is facing a situation where the US economic fundamentals are weak. The China - US tariff negotiation period is postponed to November 12. The US CPI in July met expectations. The upcoming tariff implementation in August may test market sentiment. The internal personnel change in the Fed and the US CPI data next week will guide market expectations for interest rate cuts and risk appetite [9] Domestic Macro - China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face the risk of decline and restricted re - export trade [9] Asset Views - Domestically, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month. Maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. Overseas, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations and maintain the allocation of US bonds. Slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from the weak US dollar and reduce the allocation of US dollar money market funds to be cautious about interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [9] Group 4: Viewpoints on Different Sectors Finance - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term outlook is a fluctuating upward trend. Stock index options: Layout offensive strategies, with a short - term fluctuating upward trend. Treasury futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term fluctuating trend [10] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards as the market returns to the logic of the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, with the US economic fundamentals weakening [10] Shipping - The shipping container freight rate to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the market focuses on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [10] Black Building Materials - Most products in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, are expected to fluctuate. For example, steel has strong cost support, and iron ore has a healthy fundamental situation [10] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. have different short - term trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate downward, while aluminum is expected to continue to recover, but the overall demand weakness needs to be noted [10] Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are expected to fluctuate. For example, crude oil is expected to fluctuate downward due to geopolitical concerns easing and supply pressure remaining. Some chemicals like LPG are expected to fluctuate due to cost and demand factors [12] Agriculture - Oils, fats, and protein meals are expected to continue to be strong, while corn/starch is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [12]
中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数下跌，黑色系普遍收跌-20250814
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-14 02:53