养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean Oil: The August USDA supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the new - season US soybean planting area, which is bullish. The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on 8400, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The Sino - Canadian trade relationship is the focus. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. The price is expected to rise, with support at 9500 - 9510 and pressure at 10450 - 10490 [3]. - Palm Oil: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, which is bullish. Hold long positions, with support at 8800 - 8828 and pressure at 9900 - 9910 [4]. - Soybean Meal and Bean No.2: The August USDA report is bullish. Due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal and consider long positions in the 09 contract of bean No.2 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The uncertainty of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. Adopt a low - buying strategy, with support at 2617 - 2621 and pressure at 2960 - 2963 [5]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The USDA report is bearish for the external market. In the domestic market, although there are signs of tightening imports, the fundamental pressure remains. Suggest reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts [6]. - Bean No.1: The USDA report is bullish, but the new domestic soybeans are gradually coming to the market. Consider exiting short positions in the main contract and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. - Peanuts: The inventory is low, but the new - season planting area increases. The price is under pressure in the long - term, but the 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term [8]. - Hogs: The feed price rebounds, and the de - capacity expectation is strengthened. Hold long positions in the 11 - contract [9]. - Eggs: The egg price is at a low level, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. Be cautious about short - selling, and radical investors can consider buying the 10 - contract [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Oilseeds: Bean No.1 11 - contract may fluctuate, consider light - short positions; Bean No.2 09 - contract may be bullish, consider light - long positions; Peanut 10 - contract may rebound, consider light - long short - term positions [12]. - Oils: Soybean oil 01 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions; Rapeseed oil 09 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Palm 09 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions [12]. - Protein: Soybean meal 01 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Rapeseed meal 09 - contract may rise, buy at low positions [12]. - Energy and By - products: Corn 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts; Corn starch 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts [12]. - Livestock Farming: Hog 11 - contract may rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract may find the bottom, wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - delivery: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, consider positive spread operations; for hogs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, consider positive spread operations at low positions [13][14]. - Inter - variety: For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, adopt a bearish operation; for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, adopt a bullish operation; for 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, consider long positions [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [17][18]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and开机率 of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory,开机率, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - Hogs: It provides the daily and weekly data of hog prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, pig - grain ratio, etc. [21][25]. - Eggs: It provides the daily and weekly data of egg prices, culled chicken prices, production rate, inventory, etc. [22][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - Livestock Farming End (Hogs, Eggs): It includes the closing prices of hog and egg futures contracts, spot prices, piglet prices, chicken prices, etc. [27][35] - Oils and Oilseeds: It includes the production, inventory, export, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][53] - Feed End: It includes the inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseeds, and soybean meal [56][69] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility and trading volume data of options related to various varieties [74][75] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [77][81]