南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250814

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Copper Price: 79,380 yuan/ton; Monthly price range forecast: 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 11.64%; Current volatility historical percentile: 22.6% [2] Group 3: Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline; Spot exposure: Long - Strategy 1: Short Shanghai Copper Main Future Contracts; Hedging tool: Shanghai Copper Main Future Contracts; Selling ratio: 75%; Suggested entry range: Around 82,000 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options; Hedging tool: CU2510C82000; Selling ratio: 25%; Suggested entry condition: When volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase; Spot exposure: Short - Strategy: Long Shanghai Copper Main Future Contracts; Hedging tool: Shanghai Copper Main Future Contracts; Buying ratio: 75%; Suggested entry range: Around 77,000 [2] Group 4: Core View - US inflation data is conducive to Fed rate - cuts, lowering the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector - Downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs, believing that current prices have basically fulfilled previous expectations - The previous support level of 77,000 yuan/ton for copper can be raised to 78,000 yuan/ton - The copper term structure has changed from B to C, indicating relatively solid support for this round of price increase [3] Group 5: Factors Affecting Copper Price Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies [4] - Increased rate - cut expectations lead to a decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the valuation of non - ferrous metals [4] - The lower support level is raised [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies may change repeatedly [5] - Global demand may decrease due to tariff policies [6] - US copper tariff policy adjustments lead to extremely high COMEX inventories [6] Group 6: Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: Latest price 79,380 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: Latest price 79,380 yuan/ton, daily change 360, daily change rate 0.46% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: Latest price 79,400 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - LME Copper 3M: Latest price 9,777 US dollars/ton, daily change - 63, daily change rate - 0.64% - Shanghai - London Ratio: Latest ratio 8.18, daily change 0.03, daily change rate 0.37% [5] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper: Latest price 79,475 yuan/ton, daily change 325, daily change rate 0.41% - Shanghai Wumaohui: Latest price 79,415 yuan/ton, daily change 295, daily change rate 0.37% - Guangdong Southern Reserve: Latest price 79,270 yuan/ton, daily change 320, daily change rate 0.41% - Yangtze River Non - ferrous: Latest price 79,510 yuan/ton, daily change 320, daily change rate 0.4% [7] Group 7: Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread Data - Current scrap - to - refined spread (tax - included): 1,064.89 yuan/ton, daily change - 10, daily change rate - 0.93% - Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread (tax - included): 1,491.5 yuan/ton, daily change - 0.1, daily change rate - 0.01% - Price advantage (tax - included): - 426.61 yuan/ton, daily change - 9.9, daily change rate 2.38% - Current scrap - to - refined spread (tax - excluded): 5,750 yuan/ton, daily change - 10, daily change rate - 0.17% - Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread (tax - excluded): 6,193.01 yuan/ton, daily change - 0.69, daily change rate - 0.01% - Price advantage (tax - excluded): - 443.01 yuan/ton, daily change - 9.31, daily change rate 2.15% [9] Group 8: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt Data - Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total): 22,800 tons, daily change - 3,496 tons, daily change rate - 13.29% - International Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total): 7,422 tons, daily change 5,869 tons, daily change rate 377.91% [13] Inventory Data - LME Copper Inventory (Total): 155,875 tons, change 875 tons, change rate 0.56% - COMEX Copper Inventory (Total): 266,795 tons, weekly change 3,691 tons, weekly change rate 1.4% [15][18] Group 9: Copper Import and Processing Data - Copper Import Profit and Loss: - 75.33 yuan/ton, daily change 24.95, daily change rate - 24.88% - Copper Concentrate TC: - 38 US dollars/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% [19]