塑料基本面偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Since August, affected by the restart of multiple domestic petrochemical plants, the supply of polyethylene has increased, while the demand improvement is insufficient, leading to an increase in inventory. At the same time, the decline in crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for plastics. As a result, the domestic plastic futures 2601 contract has shown a weak and volatile trend recently, with limited room for continued growth [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures Decline and Weaken Plastic Costs - In early August, 8 major OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. From April to August 2025, OPEC+ countries cumulatively increased production by 1.919 million barrels per day, reversing the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day implemented in November 2023 [3]. - The consumer side of the crude oil futures market faces a potential threat of seasonal weakening. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the US refinery operating rate was 96.9%, but it is expected to decline after late August, and the crude oil inventory destocking will slow down [3]. - With the increasing supply pressure and weakening demand in the crude oil futures market, the cost support for plastic futures is expected to weaken [3]. Increase in Domestic Polyethylene Supply Pressure - Since August, multiple domestic petrochemical plants such as Sinochem Quanzhou, Fujian United, and Lanzhou Petrochemical have restarted. Coupled with the new production of Jilin Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year HDPE plant in July, the weekly polyethylene production has increased [4]. - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, the domestic polyethylene plant capacity utilization rate was 85.72%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%. The polypropylene production reached 660,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,700 tons. In July, the domestic polyethylene production increased by 4.48% to 2.7264 million tons [4]. - At the end of July, the social sample warehouse inventory increased by 10.77% to 561,700 tons, and the continuous growth of the upstream supply side has put great pressure on plastic futures prices [4]. Weak Downstream Demand with Future Improvement Expected - In July 2025, the overall average operating rate of the domestic plastic downstream industry dropped to 38.3%, a record low for the same period [5]. - In August, the operating rates of PE packaging film and agricultural film sample enterprises increased slightly week - on - week, but the overall order follow - up is poor, and the polyethylene social inventory continued to accumulate [5]. - Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of the domestic plastic market are still weak. The supply is increasing due to plant restarts, while the demand is restricted by the off - season. The inventory accumulation pressure remains, and the plastic futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2][5].