中辉期货日刊-20250814
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-14 03:54
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious Sell: Crude oil, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, Methanol [1][2] - Cautious Buy: LPG, Urea [1][2] - Bearish Consolidation: L, PP, Propylene [1][2] - Sell: Asphalt [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center is moving down. Consider buying put options [1][4]. - LPG: High basis and high positions provide support. Consider lightly buying [1][10]. - L: The agricultural film peak season is approaching. Consider buying on dips [1][15]. - PP: Pay attention to the peak - season restocking rhythm. Consider buying on dips [1][21]. - PVC: The fundamental situation is weak. Wait for a rebound to go short [1][28]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. Gradually close short positions and buy put options [1][33]. - PTA: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Gradually close short positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on dips [1][37]. - MEG: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is expected to weaken. Look for short - selling opportunities and sell call options [2][41]. - Methanol: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and port inventories are accumulating. Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, and look for long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][44]. - Urea: The cost side provides some support. Close short positions on the 09 contract and look for long opportunities on the 01 contract [2][48]. - Asphalt: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Lightly short the contract [2][53]. - Propylene: The supply pressure may ease marginally. Consider buying on dips [2][59]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices weakened. WTI dropped 1.96%, Brent dropped 0.74%, and SC dropped 0.49% [3]. - Basic Logic: The support from the peak season is decreasing, while the pressure from OPEC+ production increase is rising. The oil price still has room to compress [4]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: IEA predicts an increase in global supply in 2025 - 2026 and a growth in demand. US commercial crude inventories increased in the week ending August 8 [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy put options. Focus on the price range of SC [475 - 495] [1][6]. LPG - Market Review: On August 13, the PG main contract closed at 3822 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [7][8]. - Basic Logic: The oil price on the cost side is weak, but the basis is high, positions are rising, and the support below is increasing [9]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and port inventories rose. PDH and other downstream operating rates showed mixed trends [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly buy. Focus on the price range of PG [3750 - 3850] [1][10]. L - Market Review: The L2509 contract closed at 7313 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [13][14]. - Basic Logic: The oil price on the cost side is falling, but the spot is stable, and the basis is strengthening. The agricultural film peak season is approaching [15]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Most devices have restarted, and the import profit of LL has increased. The operating rate of agricultural film has been rising for 3 weeks [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips. Focus on the price range of L [7200 - 7400] [1][15]. PP - Market Review: The PP2509 contract closed at 7091 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [19][20]. - Basic Logic: Cost support is insufficient, but the downside risk is limited, and the technical side has support at the bottom [21]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Upstream maintenance is high, and downstream operating rates have been rising for 2 weeks [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips. Focus on the price range of PP [7050 - 7200] [1][21]. PVC - Market Review: The V2509 contract closed at 5016 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [25][26]. - Basic Logic: The fundamental situation is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly. The industry is expected to accumulate inventories [28]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Upstream operating rates have increased, and new production capacity will be released in August. Domestic and foreign demand is in the off - season [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the price range of V [4900 - 5150] [1][28]. PX - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6726 yuan/ton [31][32]. - Basic Logic: The supply side has little change, while the demand side is weakening due to PTA device maintenance. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease [33]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Domestic devices have little change, overseas devices have slightly reduced loads, and PTA device maintenance has increased [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually close short positions and buy put options. Focus on the price range of PX [6630 - 6740] [1][34]. PTA - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4670 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4684 yuan/ton [35][36]. - Basic Logic: The supply pressure is expected to increase after new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices. The demand side is weak [37]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: PTA device maintenance has increased, downstream polyester and terminal weaving are weak, and inventories are high [37]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually close short positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on dips. Focus on the price range of TA [4650 - 4710] [1][38]. MEG - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of MEG in East China was 4456 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4384 yuan/ton [39][40]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have slightly increased loads, but arrivals and imports are still low. The demand side is weak [41]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The operating rate of MEG devices has increased slightly, but arrivals are low. Downstream polyester and terminal weaving are in the off - season [41]. - Strategy Recommendation: Look for short - selling opportunities and sell call options. Focus on the price range of EG [4360 - 4410] [2][42]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2393 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2383 yuan/ton [43]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is increasing as maintenance devices resume production, while demand is weakening, and port inventories are accumulating [44]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Domestic and overseas device loads are rising, imports are expected to be high in August, and MTO and traditional downstream operating rates are falling [44]. - Strategy Recommendation: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for long opportunities for the 01 contract. Gradually close the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Focus on the price range of MA [2360 - 2390] [2][45]. Urea - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1728 yuan/ton [46][47]. - Basic Logic: The operating rate is expected to rise, domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good, and the cost side provides support [48]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Urea production is expected to increase, domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and exports are increasing [48]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions on the 09 contract and look for long opportunities on the 01 contract. Focus on the price range of UR [1710 - 1740] [2][49]. Asphalt - Market Review: On August 13, the BU main contract closed at 3534 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [51][52]. - Basic Logic: The cost side of crude oil is weak due to OPEC+ production increase, supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing [53]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The comprehensive profit of asphalt has increased, production has increased, and inventories have decreased [53]. - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly short the contract. Focus on the price range of BU [3450 - 3550] [2][54]. Propylene - Market Review: The PL2601 contract closed at 6507 yuan/ton. The position decreased, and the PP processing fee weakened [56][57]. - Basic Logic: The PDH cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure may ease. The downstream is entering the peak season [59]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The price of Shandong propylene has decreased, and multiple PDH devices are planned to be maintained [59]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips. Focus on the price range of PL [6400 - 6600] [2][59].
中辉期货日刊-20250814 - Reportify