7月中国金融数据点评：社融多增与信贷少增？

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "社融多增与信贷少增？——7月中国金融数据点评20250814" [1] - Report date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Main Views Data Observation - In July, both social financing and credit showed seasonal declines, with a slight negative growth in credit. The new social financing stock scale in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.38 trillion yuan. RMB loans decreased by 0.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan [2]. - In terms of money supply, the growth rates of M2 and M1 both increased, with a more significant increase in M1, while the growth rate of M0 slowed down slightly. M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, up 0.5 pct from the previous month. M1 increased by 5.6% year-on-year, up 1.0 pct from the previous month, showing a significant marginal increase. M0 increased by 11.8% year-on-year, down 0.2 pct from the previous month [2]. Reasons for Social Financing Growth - The seasonal decline in social financing growth in July was still stronger than in previous years, and the increase in government bond issuance remained the core driving force. Due to the faster issuance of government bonds this year, July was still a peak period for government bond supply. Meanwhile, the negative growth of the monthly credit scale this month was lower than in previous years, leading to a further increase in the proportion of government bond issuance in the new social financing this month [3]. Reasons for Credit Shortfall - The new credit in July showed a seasonal decline, and the credit shortfall might be due to seasonal patterns. July is usually a month with the smallest credit increment in a year. Looking back at credit - weak months such as February, April, and May this year, their performance was weaker than in previous years. Therefore, the credit increment in July also continued this trend, reaching the lowest level in recent years. However, according to seasonal patterns, there is still room for recovery next month [4]. - From the supply side, banks' willingness to lend may have shrunk, as the BCI corporate financing environment index dropped to 46.09% (49.12% last month), a significant decline. From the demand side, the PMI index in July dropped to 49.3%, with the new order index shrinking to 49.4% and the procurement index shrinking to 49.5%. Both production demand and procurement willingness were weak, and corporate business expectations were under pressure. In addition, the PMI of small enterprises showed a large decline for two consecutive months, and the industry faced corporate clearance pressure [4]. M2 and M1 Trends - M2 and M1 continued to grow, indicating an abundant total amount of market funds. Since September 2024, M1 has shown an upward trend in the range, and the M2 - M1 gap has been continuously narrowing. In July, M1 continued its rapid upward trend, reaching 5.6% year - on - year, the highest value since March 2023. On the one hand, July is a large month for local government debt financing, and the central bank conducted 1.4 trillion yuan in outright reverse repurchases to guide a loose capital environment. On the other hand, the popularity of the equity market and commodity market continued, facilitating the activation of money in the investment field [5]. Highlights in July Financial Data - In terms of fiscal deposits, the government bond financing volume was higher than in previous years, and the new fiscal deposits were at a relatively high historical level. The difference between the new government bond financing volume and the new fiscal deposits decreased compared with the previous month but was higher than the seasonal level, indicating that the transmission speed of funds from the government sector to the real economy was still faster than in the same period of previous years [6]. - In terms of corporate direct financing by industry, the bond financing of real - sector enterprises increased year - on - year, with significant year - on - year increases in net financing in the energy, optional consumption, and healthcare sectors. Financial financing decreased slightly year - on - year, and real estate net financing showed signs of recovery. Large enterprises with the ability to finance from the bond market still had good net financing performance this month [7][8]. - In terms of bill financing, bill financing took the lead in the new credit in July, showing an obvious shift from short - term loan volume - boosting to bill volume - boosting by banks. Due to the increased corporate operation risks this month, banks, under the pressure of assessment, chose bill financing again to increase the total credit scale, leading to a significant decline in bill interest rates on July 28. In other credit sub - items, both short - term and long - term corporate loans declined significantly, and the suppressed financing demand was transformed into a significant increase in bill financing, and the corporate financing structure developed in a non - benign direction [8]. Future Outlook - In the current economic situation, with the continuous acceleration of government leverage, the money side continues to be activated, but there are still concerns about corporate balance sheets. In terms of money circulation, the M2 - M1 gap continued to narrow, and M1 continued its upward trend, indicating significant capital activation. The year - on - year growth of the total assets and total liabilities of industrial enterprises above the designated size began to recover, and the balance - sheet expansion momentum was restored. However, the equity growth rate was lower than the asset growth rate, reflecting insufficient internal accumulation, and the balance - sheet expansion relied on debt rather than profit support. There is also a contradictory problem of "increased social financing" but "credit contraction" at the corporate level [8]. - The policy is guiding the economy from "over - capacity" to "industry clearance." Recently, multiple measures have been accelerating the clearance of inefficient enterprises, and further standardizing corporate operations through new regulations on social security contributions and housing rent taxes. During this process, the economy may face structural adjustments, and the economic fundamentals may show increased volatility [9]. - Fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to further strengthen credit supply. On the household side, a consumer loan interest subsidy policy has been introduced, showing the intention to support household leverage. On the corporate side, an operating entity loan interest subsidy policy has been introduced, showing the intention to support small enterprises relying on bank financing and reflecting the principle of "helping in an emergency rather than rescuing the poor." From the perspective of the leverage chain of "government - driven → enterprise - taking - over → household - following," in the second half of the year, the government's leverage - increasing is coming to an end, and it is a critical turning point for enterprises and households to take over. The loose attitude of the monetary side may continue, and the loose financing environment may still be guaranteed [9]. - Regarding interest rate cuts, a dialectical view is needed. Although the recent interest subsidy policies have led to speculation in the market about a lower probability of future interest rate cuts, the weak US non - farm payroll data and the reduced inflation risk have increased the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September, providing policy space for China's interest rate cut. There is still a possibility of interest rate cuts both at home and abroad in the second half of the year [9]. - From the perspective of banks' reluctance to lend, the central bank may further guide a loose capital environment to promote the flow of funds to the real economy. To cooperate with government bond issuance, the central bank may still use various tools such as outright reverse repurchases, increased reverse repurchase issuance, restarting treasury bond purchases, and MLF over - renewal to ensure the liquidity of the banking system [10]. - For the bond market, there may still be twists and turns in the process of the fundamentals moving from "capacity clearance" to "demand recovery," which will bring about long - and short - term differences in the market. The volatility of the bond market is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in market sentiment to seize trading opportunities brought about by increased volatility [10][12]