【早间看点】SGS马棕8月前10日出口增65.25% USDA美豆25/26年收割面积为8010万英亩-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information (such as weather, international and domestic supply - demand), macro - news, and capital flows. It presents data on various commodities like palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as currency exchange rates and shipping freight indices. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices, daily and overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also provided [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperatures and mostly above - median precipitation from August 17th to 21st. The US Midwest will have more precipitation in the future, with moderate precipitation opportunities in the next 7 - 10 days, which can benefit crops but may also cause flooding problems [5][8]. -国际供需 - - Global 2025/26 palm oil production, exports are expected to be flat compared to last month's estimates, while ending stocks are slightly revised down. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 65.25% compared to the same period last month. Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high. India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to soar by 60%, while palm oil imports may drop to a five - year low. USDA's estimates for US 2025/26 soybean harvest area, yield, production, and ending stocks are different from market expectations. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are revised upwards. EU's 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed are lower than last year [10][12][14]. -国内供需 - - On August 12th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 8% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the oil - mill operating rate decreased slightly. The national soybean oil port inventory increased. The estimated 2024/25 edible vegetable oil imports are revised down, mainly due to the high price of palm oil [17]. 04 Macro - News -国际要闻 - - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 6.6%, with a 93.4% chance of a 25 - basis - point cut. US economic data such as CPI, NFIB small - business confidence index, and retail sales are reported. The US Treasury Secretary suggests a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. OPEC adjusts its 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecast. The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment and current situation indices change [20][21]. -国内要闻 - - On August 12th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased (yuan depreciated). The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. China initiates anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports. A personal consumer loan fiscal subsidy policy is introduced [23]. 05 Capital Flows - On August 12, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.826 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.858 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net outflow of 11.684 billion yuan. Capital flows for various futures varieties are presented [25][26].