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腾讯控股(00700):延续高质量增长,AI建设能力不断强化
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-08-14 05:11

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, with a target price of 767 HKD based on a 25x PE for 2025 [3][52]. Core Insights - Tencent's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in advertising and a deepening strategy in evergreen games, alongside comprehensive improvements in AI capabilities [3][4]. - For Q2 FY25, Tencent achieved a revenue of 184.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 63.1 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year [52][18]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 733.8 billion RMB, 797.3 billion RMB, and 871.3 billion RMB respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11.1%, 8.7%, and 9.3% [6][52]. - Adjusted Net Profit: Expected adjusted net profits for the same years are 255.3 billion RMB, 282.5 billion RMB, and 314.3 billion RMB, with growth rates of 14.6%, 10.7%, and 11.3% respectively [6][52]. - Profitability Metrics: The adjusted net profit margin is projected to improve from 25.9% in 2023 to 36.1% in 2027 [6]. Segment Performance - Value-Added Services: Revenue from value-added services reached 91.4 billion RMB in Q2 FY25, a 15.9% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 60.4% [52][26]. - Marketing Services: Marketing services generated 35.8 billion RMB, up 19.7% year-on-year, benefiting from AI-driven improvements in advertising platforms [52][31]. - Financial Technology and Enterprise Services: Revenue from this segment grew by 10.1% year-on-year, reaching 55.5 billion RMB, supported by increased demand for consumer loan services and business payment activities [52][39]. Operational Data - AI Integration: The report highlights the significant role of AI in enhancing operational efficiency and driving revenue growth across various segments, particularly in gaming and advertising [3][41]. - User Engagement: The monthly active users (MAU) for WeChat and QQ showed slight fluctuations, with WeChat MAU increasing by 0.6% and QQ decreasing by 0.4% in Q2 FY25 [42][48]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Tencent's ongoing investment in AI will continue to enhance its platform value, leading to robust revenue and profit growth [52][50].