沪锡日评：国内精炼锡产能开工率环比升高国内外精炼锡总库存量较上周减少-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but due to the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo-Kinshasa and the continuous increase in the operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 267,940 yuan, a decrease of 380 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 44,115 lots, a decrease of 37,387 lots; the open interest was 24,776 lots, a decrease of 1,155 lots; the inventory was 7,332 tons, an increase of 33 tons [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on August 13, 2025, was $33,700, a decrease of $70 from the previous day; the LME tin global inventory was 1,780 tons, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The ratio of Shanghai tin to London tin was 8.01 on August 13, 2025, an increase of 0.01 from the previous day [2]. Industry News - According to June data from the Indonesian Trade Ministry, the total export volume of tin ingots decreased by 18.2% to 4,465 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports to Singapore increased by 15.1% month - on - month to 1,063.95 tons, while exports to China decreased by 35.7% month - on - month to 953.85 tons [2]. - Stellar Resources extended the exclusivity period for the use of infrastructure in the Comstock mining area adjacent to the Heemskirk tin mine project by 6 months. The company is evaluating three development plans and aims to achieve an annual tin production of 3,000 - 3,500 tons in the first 6 - 10 years after production [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In July, some tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State planned to resume production, and the Bisie tin mine in Congo - Kinshasa also announced phased resumption of production. The domestic tin ore production and import volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the domestic tin concentrate processing fee is oscillating downward. The production of recycled tin in China in August increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and Yunnan increased. The production and inventory of refined tin in China in August increased month - on - month. Indonesia's tin export quota may be compressed in the medium and long term, but PT Tinah plans to increase production and sales in 2025, and China's refined tin import volume in August may decrease month - on - month. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared with last week [2]. - Demand: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a decline in the operating rate of China's tin solder production capacity in August. The import volume of China's solder strips in August may decrease month - on - month, and the production, import, and export volumes of China's tin - plated sheets in August may change as follows: production increases, import decreases, and export increases. The operating rate of China's lead - acid battery production capacity decreased compared with last week [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support level of 248,000 - 258,000 and the resistance level of 274,000 - 283,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level of 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level of 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2].