贵金属日评：特朗普或提前任命美联储主席，特普会前美国威胁扩大对俄制裁-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The addition of tariffs has raised concerns about a rebound in consumer - end inflation in the US, but due to the weakening of the US employment market, the Fed still has the possibility of interest - rate cuts. Coupled with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. The support and resistance levels for different precious metal products are also provided [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: - Shanghai Gold futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 774.71 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.54 compared to the previous day and - 7.31 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 32,602.00, and the open interest was 207,458.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Gold T + D: The trading volume was 32,602.00 on 2025 - 08 - 13, with a change of - 182.00 compared to the previous day and 864.00 compared to the previous week. The open interest was 207,458.00 [1]. - COMEX gold futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 3,407.00, with a change of 7.40 compared to the previous day and - 28.00 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was - 17,739.00, and the open interest was - 7,223.00 [1]. - International gold (London gold spot): The price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 3,343.30 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.90 compared to the previous day and 21.10 compared to the previous week [1]. - Silver: - Shanghai Silver futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 9,300.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 42.00 compared to the previous day and 113.00 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 415,237.00, and the open interest was 365,333.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Silver T + D: The trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 302,236.00, with a change of 124,448.00 compared to the previous day and 74,550.00 compared to the previous week. The open interest was 3,541,500.00 [1]. - COMEX silver futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 38.55 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.71 compared to the previous day and 0.61 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was - 10,173.00, and the open interest was - 30,858.00 [1]. - International silver (London silver spot): The price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 37.69 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.91 compared to the previous day and 1.26 compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - US: Trump may appoint the next Fed chair slightly earlier, with the candidates narrowed down to three or four. Bessent believes that the US interest - rate level should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. The US Treasury Secretary pressured before the "Trump - Putin meeting" and threatened to increase sanctions against Russia. Trump said that if things go well, there will be a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. The import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the core CPI annual rate in the US consumer - end inflation in July. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the number of new non - farm employment in June and July in the US, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, and the Fed still has the possibility of interest - rate cuts in September, October, and December [1]. - Europe: The European Central Bank suspended interest - rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 28%. The annual rate of the consumer price index (CPI) in the eurozone (Germany) in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates about once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The annual rate of the consumer price index (CPI) (core CPI) in the UK in August was 3.6% (3.7%), higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits decreased continuously from June to July, so the Bank of England may cut interest rates about once again before the end of 2025 [1]. - Japan: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government - bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The annual rate of the core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), which was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value, so the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising interest rates before the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when precious metal prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 800 - 810; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 and the resistance level around 37 - 40; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 [1].